US dairy exports expand in January amid a strong production growth

January 2026 delivered strong overall export results compared with the same month in 2025, despite several category-specific declines.Milk protein concentrates (MPCs) and dairy blends declined by -18.30%, while whey protein concentrate (WPC) <80 fell by -22.24%. Exports of WPC80 and whey protein isolate (WPI) dropped by -35.94%. Casein exports decreased by -52.27%, caseinates declined by -15.10%, and infant formula fell by -43.08%. US JANUARY EXPORTS - TONS Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 46,775 55,777 9,002 19.25% WMP 1,240 3,293 2,053 165.56% Whey 15,081 19,800 4,719 31.29% Dairy blends/ mpc's 4,540 3,709 -831 -18.30% Mod. Whey 17,513 18,448 935 5.34% WPC < 80% 9,555 7,430 -2,125 -22.24% WPC80/WPI's 8,375 5,365 -3,010 -35.94% Casein 662 316 -346 -52.27% Caseinates 351 298 -53 -15.10% Lactose 31,948 32,991 1,043 3.26% I/F 1,843 1,049 -794 -43.08% Cheese 46,919 51,854 4,935 10.52% Butter 3,230 9,213 5,983 185.23% AMF 3,897 4,583 686 17.60% Cream 2,867 3,708 841 29.33% Fermented 5,050 6,408 1,358 26.89% Condensed 1,157 2,316 1,159 100.17% Milk 9,541 10,068 527 5.52% All other commodities recorded growth, with fat-based products showing particularly strong performance. Whole milk powder (WMP) exports increased by +166%, cheese by +10.52%, butter by +185%, and anhydrous milk fat (AMF) by +17.60%.Overall, January exports increased by +11.77% year over year, equivalent to an additional 155 million kilo of LME.Although declines in several key categories limited the pace of growth, gains in other dairy product segments more than offset these losses, allowing total exports to expand.US dairy imports in January continued to decline year over year and showed a wide gap compared with the previous year. The month closed with a -27.84% decrease, equivalent to approximately -94 million kilo of LME. The steepest declines were observed across most product categories, particularly fat-based products, apart from cream, which recorded an increase. US JANUARY IMPORTS - TONS Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% SMP 232 460 228 98.28% WMP 2,205 1,070 -1,135 -51.47% Whey 2,013 2,160 147 7.30% WPC <80% 2,175 2,486 311 14.30% WPC80/WPI's 1,575 1,210 -365 -23.17% MPC 5,714 4,177 -1,537 -26.90% Casein 1,947 203 -1,744 -89.57% Caseinates 1,207 1,589 382 31.65% Lactose 329 291 -38 -11.55% I/F 6,222 2,015 -4,207 -67.61% Cheese 17,169 11,297 -5,872 -34.20% Butter 7,576 4,503 -3,073 -40.56% AMF 1,657 691 -966 -58.30% Cream 2,448 3,592 1,144 46.73% Condensed 4,135 5,449 1,314 31.78% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 4,535 5,461 926 20.42% Milk 3,642 1,769 -1,873 -51.43% With overall import volumes falling significantly compared with last year, the data suggests that import momentum is weakening, as several key categories show clear contraction. In addition to tariff considerations, the primary driver behind declining imports appears to be the sharp increase in domestic milk production.This follows a year (2025) in which annual US milk production increased by 2.62 billion kilo. Milk Production 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% January 8,706,000,000 8,986,000,000 280,000,000 3.22% Given that milk production continues to expand, imports are likely to decline further. For the market to remain balanced, continued growth in exports will therefore be essential.