Chinese pork production continues to rise

The Chinese pork production has increased in 2025, against the wishes of the government. The consequences are significant. The pork price has further declined and exports to the country are increasingly under pressure. Pork production in China has increased by 4.1% year-on-year in 2025 to 59 million tons. The number of pigs slaughtered rose by 2.4% to 720 million animals. This is due to the growing productivity of sows. In the last quarter of the year, pork production reached 15.7 million tons, the highest level for a fourth quarter since 2018. Reducing production proves complicated The Chinese government has been trying to reduce pork production since 2024 to better balance supply and demand in the domestic market. That year, the country decided to reduce the number of sows from 41 million to 39 million animals. However, until now, China has not succeeded in controlling the size of the pig herd. The decline of the pig herd was almost immediately accompanied by a sharp increase in the pig price. In week 33 of 2024, the pig price was 42.8% above the low point in March. Meanwhile, the price is significantly lower now. Although the price recently showed a slight rebound in January, the pig quotation has been structurally low since winter. In week 7, 12.94 yuan (€1.61 per kilo) was paid out. From a European perspective, this does not seem so bad. The price is still a cent above the level of the VEZG, which is high by European standards. In China, however, this level is far too low for profitable production. The sector in the country is simply less efficient. In addition, the country is highly dependent on the import of soybean meal for animal feed. Imports are decreasing As a result of the substantial domestic production, exports to the country are under pressure. Exports from the European Union decreased in 2025 by 6.8% to 1.07 million tons. Spain remained the largest exporter to the country, with a total export of 503,869 tons. Exports in the year dropped by 6.3%. Denmark was the second-largest exporter that year. Interestingly, imports from Denmark increased. Exports rose by 2.4% to 188,510 tons. Partly due to very stringent new tariffs, particularly the exports from the Netherlands have taken a significant step downwards. Exports fell by no less than 14.6% to 169,531 tons. The decline in European exports seems severe, but compared to international competitors, the decrease is manageable. Brazilian exports of pork to the country fell in 2025 by no less than 33.9% to 159,200 tons. Exports from the United States decreased in the year by 21% to 367,416 tons.