Volatility continues to dominate the grain trade

The grain trade is anything but calm. Wheat on the CBoT showed an unusually wide intraday range, with a difference of about 6% between the session high and low. At the same time, unfavourable spring conditions are delaying fieldwork in Ukraine, while Brazil’s soybean harvest is running behind the five-year average. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €3.75 lower at €195.75 per tonne. The May contract, on which most trading is done, closed in the green with an increase of €1.75 per tonne, resulting in a price of €209.75 per tonne. In Chicago, wheat closed 13¼ cents lower at $5.98 per bushel. The market was notably volatile during the last trading session. In the morning, wheat actually rose $6.35 per bushel. A range of 37 cents on a trading day can be considered extreme. Corn closed 9½ cents lower at $4.37½ per bushel. Soybeans remained slightly more stable than grains on the Chicago exchange, with a decrease of 4½ cents to $11.80½ per bushel. The Ukrainian grain harvest for 2026 is expected to be about 4% lower than that of 2025. This is at least what the market bureau AKP-Inform expects. In 2025, 61.1 million tonnes of grain were harvested, and for the upcoming harvest, the agency estimates the yield at 58.1 million tonnes. The largest decline is in wheat. For the upcoming harvest, APK estimates 20 million tonnes of wheat compared to 23.2 million tonnes last season. The corn harvest is estimated at 31.8 million tonnes against 30.9 million last year, and the market bureau estimates barley at 5.1 million tonnes compared to 5.4 million tonnes last year. More export Although the harvest is smaller, Ukraine can export about 4% more grain in the 2026/27 season according to APK-Inform. The wheat export is estimated to be 500,000 tonnes lower than in 2025/26, at 14 million tonnes. On the other hand, there could be 1.8 million tonnes more corn and 500,000 tonnes more barley exported. This would bring the export in 2026/27 to 25 million tonnes of corn and 2.5 million tonnes of barley. The Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Affairs announced yesterday that the spring activities in the Ukrainian agricultural sector have been delayed by two weeks. In the southern regions of Ukraine, growers usually start sowing summer crops in mid-February. However, due to frost in the ground and snow remnants, farmers have not yet been able to work the land. Oil The conflict in Iran continues to keep emotions high. Especially from oilseeds like rapeseed and soybean, the price movements of crude oil are closely monitored. Brent oil was briefly above $100 per barrel, but ultimately closed below that threshold. A high diesel price could encourage refineries to blend in more vegetable oil. The Middle East is also an important region for the production of fertilizers, and this is reflected in the prices for especially nitrogen-containing fertilizers. Particularly in Asia, growers are dependent on fertilizers from this region. The Indian government announced yesterday that it will take measures to keep fertilizers available and affordable for their farmers. Among other things, a maximum price for certain fertilizers will be established. New markets Russia, another large producer of fertilizers, would eagerly fill the gap caused by the limited availability from the Middle East. The Kremlin aims to control a quarter of the global fertilizer trade by 2030. Various insiders in the Russian fertilizer sector told Reuters that the Russian industry is not benefiting or only benefiting to a limited extent from the higher prices and possible extra demand. Many fertilizer factories have obligations to customers in their own country. Due to Ukrainian attacks on Russian fertilizer factories, such as the one on February 25 in Dorogobuzh, there is also little or no space to increase production. In Brazil, growers are just over halfway through harvesting soybeans. According to AgRural, as of last Thursday, 51% of the soybean area had been harvested, as reported by the agency yesterday. Last year, this week, 61% had been harvested. The soybean harvest in Brazil is progressing at the slowest pace since the 2020/21 season.