Dairy prices climb again in GDT Event 399

GDT Event 399 recorded a strong increase of +5.7%, marking the fifth consecutive price increase this year. Since the previous GDT auction, the market had shown mixed signals, but Event 399 confirmed a clearly bullish sentiment following four earlier gains.The result exceeded the signal from SGX futures for “all contracts,” which indicated a +3.5% increase. The average winning price (AWP) closed at $4,301 per ton, representing a +6.8% increase compared with the AWP in Event 398.New Zealand’s offered volume decreased by 15.83%, or 5,036 tons, compared with Event 398. This decline occurred despite the presence of BMP.For the year-to-date through December, New Zealand milk production increased by 1.85%, equivalent to an additional 398 million kilo of milk. January production rose by +2.4%, bringing year-to-date January production to 2,442,000,000 kilo.GDT Event 399 results PRICE INDEX UP +5.7%, AWP $ 4.301 NZ Supply AMF UP +5.7%, AWP $7,147 ↑ BUTTER UP +6,1%, AWP $ 6.728 ↑ Cheddar UP +4.3%, AWP 4,920 ↑ SMP UP +9,1%, AWP $ 3,243 ↑ WMP UP + 4.5%, AWP $ 3,863 ↑ European and US Supply Butter (Solarec) UP 11.79%./ $ 5,802/mt (average price) ↑ Mozzarella UP 7.9% AWP $ 4,189 ↑ Lactose DOWN -3.9%/ AWP US $ 1,459 ↓ SMP W-Europe, Arla, UP 8.76%, AWP $ 3,089 (average price) ↑ SMP W-Europe, DMK, N.P./ AWP N.P. ↔ SMP W-Europe, Solarec, UP 2.0%, AWP $ 3,183 (average price) ↑ SMP USA N.A. / AWP N.A.. ↔ WMP W-Europe,Solarec UP 2.73% . AWP $ 4.020 (average price) ↑ AMF increased by +5.7%, with the largest value gain recorded in C1. The butterfat value in AMF is $7,183 per ton on a 100% fat basis.Butter increased by +6.1%. The butterfat value in butter is $8,155 per ton on a 100% fat basis. The difference in butterfat value between butter and AMF now stands at +$972 per ton in favour of butter.Cheddar increased by +4.3%.SMP increased by +9.1%, with the largest gains in C1.WMP increased by +4.5%, with the largest gain in C4 and the smallest in C1.A significant spread between front-month and later-dated contracts was observed for both butter and AMF. NZ Front Deferred Last vs front AMF $7,331 $7,124 -2.82% BUTTER $6,576 $6,920 5.23% CHEDDAR $4,955 $4,980 0.50% SMP $3,355 $3,315 -1.19% WMP $3,810 $3,910 2.62% European and US supplyAll non-New Zealand prices increased, except for lactose, which declined, and SMP from DMK and the US, which remained unchanged. In both cases, this was due to the product not being sold (DMK) or not being offered (US). On the day of the GDT auction, the CME spot call session saw US SMP settle at $3,805 per ton (FOB).Although SGX futures had already indicated a positive result for GDT, the SGX market reacted even more strongly in the days following the auction, with all quotations rising sharply. The largest increases were observed in SMP, followed by WMP, AMF, and butter. WMP 18/02/2026 04/03/2026 ∆ ∆% March $3,720 $3,850 $130 3.49% April $3,805 $3,965 $160 4.20% May $3,825 $3,995 $170 4.44% June $3,830 $3,990 $160 4.18% July $3,710 $3,895 $185 4.99% August $3,640 $3,830 $190 5.22% SMP March $3,170 $3,370 $200 6.31% April $3,195 $3,465 $270 8.45% May $3,180 $3,450 $270 8.49% June $3,180 $3,390 $210 6.60% July $3,125 $3,300 $175 5.60% August $3,125 $3,230 $105 3.36% AMF March $6,785 $7,145 $360 5.31% April $6,755 $7,145 $390 5.77% May $6,740 $7,055 $315 4.67% June $6,570 $6,700 $130 1.98% July $6,250 $6,450 $200 3.20% August $6,100 $6,260 $160 2.62% BUTTER March $6,500 $6,850 $350 5.38% April $6,525 $6,925 $400 6.13% May $6,445 $6,945 $500 7.76% June $6,465 $6,825 $360 5.57% July $6,405 $6,450 $45 0.70% August $6,200 $6,230 $30 0.48% Average prices C1-C6 18/02/2026 04/03/2026 ∆ ∆% WMP $3,755 $3,921 $166 4.42% SMP $3,163 $3,368 $205 6.48% AMF $6,533 $6,793 $259 3.97% BUTTER $6,423 $6,538 $114 1.78% The strong positive response on SGX following GDT Event 399 aligns with the current market sentiment, which is being influenced by geopolitical developments, particularly the ongoing conflict involving Iran. Despite five consecutive price increases, Fonterra’s theoretical revenue from GDT auctions remains negative compared with the previous season. Up to Event 398, the current season has generated a −3.18% decline, equivalent to approximately $76 million less revenue compared with the average prices achieved during the 2024/25 season.