Despite higher milk production, New Zealand’s dairy exports decline in January

January, the seventh month of the 2025/26 milk season, recorded a significant increase in milk production of 2.45%, equivalent to an additional 65 million kilo. This follows a 2.40% increase in November. Year to date (YTD) production through January reached 2,442,000,000 kilo.In January, most product categories recorded export declines, except for whey, rennet casein, WPC80/WPI, lactose, cheese, and liquid milk. Cheese exports increased year on year, and the growth trend appears to be gaining momentum again. After rising by 5.96% in October and 2.19% in November, December recorded a stronger increase of 10.03%. New Zealand exports January Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% WMP 148,597 141,908 -6,689 -4.50% SMP 53,789 47,879 -5,910 -10.99% BMP 3,248 2,809 -439 -13.52% Whey 1,091 1,297 206 18.88% Acid casein 4,164 2,971 -1,193 -28.65% Rennet Casein 1,848 1,945 97 5.25% Caseinates 2,620 2,327 -293 -11.18% WPI/WPC > 80% 1,895 2,211 316 16.68% Lactose 2,004 2,261 257 12.82% Infant Formula 6,976 5,700 -1,276 -18.29% Butter 31,038 29,333 -1,705 -5.49% AMF 16,474 14,688 -1,786 -10.84% Cheese 38,333 39,668 1,335 3.48% Milk 15,259 22,760 7,501 49.16% Condensed 2,466 1,304 -1,162 -47.12% Cream 17,959 24,744 6,785 37.78% Total exports in January declined by 4.80%, equivalent to a reduction of 105,338,430 kilo of liquid milk equivalent (LME). This marks a reversal from the YTD December 2025 figure, which showed a modest increase of 0.35%, or 72 million kilo LME.On the import side, lactose imports declined in December, while cheese and whey imports increased. Overall, total imports fell by 1.92%, or 1.4 million kilo LME. In December alone, total New Zealand imports of the above-mentioned products increased by 3.99%, equivalent to 35 million kilo LME. New Zealand imports January Product 2025 2026 ∆ ∆% Whey 0404.10 8,888 9,746 858 9.65% Cheese 0406 9,432 11,203 1,771 18.78% Lactose 1702.11 & 19 100,641 103,295 2,654 2.64% As of January YTD, theoretical stocks increased from 1.57 billion kilo LME at the start of the season to 1.74 billion kilo LME. This represents 7.91% of New Zealand’s milk production YTD January 2026. The stock level is relatively high, reflecting increased milk production combined with weaker export performance. NZ Milk Balance January 2026 Starting stocks 1/1/2026 1,566,827,010 Incremental Incremental milk production Year to date January 2026 65,000,000 Change imports YTD January 2026 -1,406,590 Change Exports YTD January 2026 -105,338,430 Theoretical stock 31/1/'26 in kgs LME 1,735,758,850 Total 1,630,420,420 1,630,420,420 Theoretical stock as a percentage of annual milk production 7.91%