Expensive Russian wheat and logistical issues shift demand to the EU

The combination of relatively expensive Russian wheat and logistical problems to the country makes buyers more inclined to choose wheat from the EU. Incidentally, there was nothing to indicate this on the Matif yesterday. Weather problems in France and the US could support the new harvest. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €2.25 lower at €193 per tonne. At the CBoT, wheat lost 1¾ cents to $5.65¾ per bushel. Corn closed in the green on the Chicago exchange with an increase of 2¾ cents to $4.30½ per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest riser with an increase of 8¾ cents to $11.48¼ per bushel. Disruptions to shipping and a relatively strong ruble keep the price of Russian wheat stable. At least that is what market agency Ikar states, keeping the quote for Russian wheat the same as last week at $233 per tonne FOB (delivered on board the ship). For shipping, reaching Russian ports is anything but easy. In the Black Sea, shipowners are dealing with stormy weather, and in the Caspian Sea and the Baltic Sea, there are problems with ice formation. There is also ice in the Sea of Azov, but there, ships navigate in convoys to and from the ports, writes Ikar. Is Europe benefiting? According to SovEcon, some buyers are turning to wheat from the EU due to the combination of a relatively high price for Russian wheat and the challenging conditions for shipping. Ports in Constanta, Romania, and Varna and Burgas in Bulgaria are especially benefiting from this, according to the market agency. SovEcon also raised the quote for Russian wheat to $232 to $236 per tonne FOB this week, compared to $231 to $235 last week. SovEcon expects Russian wheat exports in February to total 3.3 million tonnes. Ikar estimates slightly lower with a forecasted export of 3.1 to 3.2 million tonnes. The Russian railway operator Rusagrotrans reports that it transported 1.8 million tonnes of wheat for export from February 1 to 16. The total export estimate for Russia for the 2025/26 season has been reduced by 300,000 tonnes to 45.4 million tonnes, according to SovEcon. For the 2026/27 season, the export forecast has been raised by 2.1 million tonnes to 41.7 million tonnes. Spring can begin Shipping may be significantly affected by winter weather, but according to SovEcon, there is not much going on for agriculture. In southern Russia, the sowing of summer grains, among others, is about to begin. No significant weather threats are expected in the coming week. The ice crust on some fields currently does not pose a serious risk in our opinion. This will gradually melt as temperatures rise, writes SovEcon. Ikar also points to weather-related problems in France and the US. In the southern prairies of the US, it is dry and there are wildfires. In France, it is flooding that is causing local problems for winter grains for the upcoming harvest. All together, this could provide support for the wheat price in the near future, according to Ikar. Jantje laughs, Jantje cries The soybean market remains quite volatile. The lack of Chinese orders for American soybeans seemed to dampen the mood in the soybean market. However, very brisk exports of soybean meal from the US and problems at soybean processors in Argentina flipped the sentiment. Argentine processors are struggling with the availability of soybeans, some sources report. The new harvest is approaching, but typically the harvest in Argentina begins at the end of March. In Brazil, soybeans may be slightly underperforming compared to earlier predictions. Dr. Cordonnier lowered his estimate for the soybean harvest in Brazil from 1 million tonnes to 178 million tonnes, due to poor quality and lower yields in northern Mato Grosso and dry conditions in Rio Grande do Sul, where 50% of the harvest still needs to develop pods.