Warmer weather and chance of rain temper wheat trade

Precipitation chances and higher temperatures are causing the focus in the wheat trade to shift away from the weather risks that contributed to significantly rising prices over the past week. This means that the trade is taking a pause and taking time to determine a new direction. The fear of weather risks from drought and frost damage has somewhat subsided, but the uncertainty about what U.S. import tariffs will cause and the threat of a U.S. invasion of Iran are still clearly present in the background. In this respect, the trade is also on edge. The slightest movement on these fronts has direct consequences for the price formation in grains. On Tuesday, the March contracts for wheat closed on the futures market in Paris at €195.25 per ton. This price was slightly below the level of Monday. The number of traded contracts decreased further as the trade has now focused more on the next contract; that of May. The May contract also closed a fraction lower than Monday at €197.25 per ton. Compared to a week ago, the contracts have made a nice upward step. The March contract shows an increase of about €5 per ton compared to last Tuesday. The May delivery has even increased in price by €7 during this period. Such price changes also mean that some profit-taking has occurred. The current developments are also causing prices to rise slightly in the longer term. For instance, new harvest prices are now above €200 per ton again. December delivery is being traded in Paris for €207.25 per ton. The prices for the 2027 harvest are about €7 to €10 higher than that. The settlement prices for the 2028 harvest are close to €220, although there has been no trading in that in recent days. Chicago shows a slight decline for the current harvest of wheat, while subsequent harvests have risen slightly in price. The March contract on the CBoT is falling by 2 cents to $5.67½ per bushel. May delivery is slightly down to $5.73½ per bushel. When converted to euros, the futures contracts on the CBoT have made a larger leap in the past week compared to the trade in Paris. This is partly due to the appreciation of the dollar. One euro is now worth just slightly less than $1.18. In previous weeks, you got more dollars for a euro. The March contract is priced just below €180 per ton, while the May contract is just above that. On a weekly basis, these prices have risen by €8 to €12 per ton. In January, the March contract changed hands for barely €160 per ton. Prices for the later contracts in Chicago are also at a higher level. December 2026 is being traded for the equivalent of just over €190. The December contract for the 2027 harvest is more than €10 per ton above that.