Risk of US attack on Iran pushes oil prices higher

The risk of escalation following a US attack on Iran is being priced into oil prices. Crude Brent oil is at its highest in nearly seven months. The Dutch gas storage level is at a historically low 11.7%. This is not an acute problem, especially not with milder weather ahead, barring unforeseen events. Despite global overproduction, the oil price has climbed to its highest point in nearly seven months. This seems to be primarily about risks that are being priced in. The geopolitical situation remains tense. Trump threatens military action against Iran if Tehran does not reach an agreement on the nuclear program by Thursday, and possibly even earlier. In the case of escalation, the supply of oil could be disrupted. Iran has already threatened to block the Strait of Hormuz, through which one-third of the globally traded oil and one-fifth of LNG passes. At the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, February 24), oil costs $71.36 per barrel; on December 16, it was still less than $59. What is also not helping right now are the new trade tariffs that went into effect on Tuesday and the confusion surrounding them. After the US Supreme Court ruled a large part of the tariffs imposed by Trump illegal, new import tariffs of 10% have been introduced. Trump most recently mentioned 15%. DieselDiesel prices have risen sharply, from €132.25 per 100 litres (for purchases of 4,000 litres, LTO member price) on February 18 to €137.91 per 100 liters on February 24. Dutch gas storage level very low At €30.80 per MWh, the gas price at the time of writing (Tuesday afternoon, February 24) is slightly lower than a week ago (€31.84 per MWh on February 18). The gas price has decreased since a recent peak on January 30 of €39.29 per MWh, but it remains volatile. The storage level of Dutch gas supplies has dropped to a very low level of 11.7%, according to the official data from Gas Infrastructure Europe. Various media reported an alarmingly low storage level of 1.1%, but that turned out to be a typo from the National Energy Dashboard. Across the EU, the storage level is 30.8%. 11.7% is still a historically low percentage. The good news is that there is no severe frost is forecast. In fact, today (February 25) it is genuinely spring-like in the Netherlands. The need for gas for heating thus decreases significantly. There is, however, little wind, resulting in low wind energy production, but the sun is shining brightly. Gasunie informs Nu.nl that The low storage level is not an acute problem. There is a stable supply of gas, and gas prices are even decreasing slightly. However, Gasunie indicates that no unexpected events should occur. It is precisely those unexpected events that pose a risk, said Rene Peters, director of gas technology at research institute TNO, recently on LinkedIn. He refers to the recent developments surrounding the US and Iran: What if those flows dry up due to sanctions or war, with the Strait of Hormuz being closed? Maybe we should seriously consider a strategic or emergency stock for gas just like we have for oil? Electricity The average daily electricity price fluctuated this week on the futures market TTF from €54.37 on February 22 to €105.66 on February 24. Like the gas price, the electricity price also fluctuates significantly, states the latest energy monitor from the ACM. In January, the electricity price was at a high level, with the average day-ahead price amounting to €108/MWh, the highest average price since February 2025. Electricity prices follow gas prices. When the gas price fluctuated in early February, the electricity price followed the same pattern. As a positive note, the ACM states that 'the generation of electricity from solar and wind in the EU is now greater than from fossil sources.' The Netherlands had already reached this milestone earlier; now this also applies to the entire European Union.