EU insists Trump honor import-tariff deal

The trade tariffs of Trump continue to cause significant unrest in the grain market. The American president wants to implement a general import tax following the ruling of the Supreme Court. The EU is not pleased about this, as the European Commissioner for Trade made clear. Ukraine expects to harvest more wheat in the upcoming harvest despite lower yield predictions per hectare. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1 lower at €196 per tonne. At the CBoT, wheat fell by 4 cents and ended at $5.69½ per bushel. Corn closed unchanged on the Chicago exchange at $4.27½ per bushel. Soybeans dropped by 3¼ cents to $11.34¼ per bushel. Ukraine expects that the wheat harvest in 2026 will be 2.9% larger than in 2025. According to the forecast from the Ukrainian agricultural lobbying organization UCAB and the Ukrainian Ministry of Economic Affairs, Ukraine will harvest 23.1 million tonnes of wheat this year. This larger harvest is due to an expansion of the wheat area by 4.8% compared to last year, reaching 5.1 million hectares. The yield per hectare is estimated to be 1.7% lower. Wheat exports could rise to 17.6 million in the 2025/26 season. For the current 2024/25 season, Ukraine is counting on an export of 15.8 million tonnes. The corn harvest for the 2026 crop year is expected to increase even more quickly than the wheat harvest, according to the organizations. Compared to last year, the harvest will rise by 11.2% to 29.9 million tonnes, compared to a harvest of 26.9 million tonnes last year. The export of corn is increasing less dramatically, expected to reach 23.8 million tonnes next season compared to 22 million tonnes in the current season. Temporary new import tax The ruling of the American Supreme Court last Friday, declaring Trump's import tariffs illegal, has caused considerable uncertainty. Following the ruling, the American president initially announced a temporary general import tax of 10%. Later, Trump raised that to 15%. This new tax under the Trade Act of 1974 may remain in effect for up to 150 days. The European Commission seems to be becoming slightly more aggressive towards America. The EU demands 'full clarity' from Washington and warned that unpredictable import tariffs disrupt markets and undermine confidence, as was made clear after a conversation between European Commissioner for Trade Maros Sefcovic and the United States Trade Representative Jamieson Greer and the American Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick. The current situation is not conducive to establishing 'fair, balanced, and mutually beneficial' transatlantic trade and investment, as agreed by both parties, said the Commission, which negotiates trade policy on behalf of the 27 EU member states. A deal is a deal. Under the current agreement, many products from the EU are subject to a 15% American import tariff. Different rates apply to some sectors, such as steel. Products like airplanes and steel parts are exempt from import tariffs. Variable weather in Brazil In Brazil, there are significant differences between provinces regarding the soybean harvest, according to new figures from AgRural. Across the country, 30% of the soybean harvest is in, according to the market agency. Last week, the count was at 21%, but last year at this time, 39% of the soybeans had been harvested. In the largest soybean province, Mato Grosso, 66% of the soybean area has been harvested compared to 57% in the five-year average. Of the first planted corn, 28% has been harvested according to AgRural. Half of the planned corn area as a subsequent crop after soybeans has been planted. In Mato Grosso, 66% of the second crop corn is in the ground. The weather predicted for Brazil is seen by specialists as relatively neutral for the market. There will not be a prolonged dry period during which harvesting of soybeans can pick up speed. However, it will not rain continuously, and a bit of moisture is favorable for the recently planted corn.