US dairy exports strengthen as imports decline in December

December 2025 delivered strong overall export results compared with the same month in 2024, despite several category-specific declines. Exports of MPCs/Dairy Blends declined by 7.70%, WPC <80 fell by 30.79%, WPC80/WPI decreased by 11.92%, Casein dropped by 54.10%, Caseinates declined by 43.82%, Lactose was down 13.53%, and Liquid Milk decreased by 10.28%. All other commodities recorded growth, with fat-based products showing particularly strong performance. WMP increased by 181%, Cheese rose by 23.81%, Butter surged by 262%, and AMF expanded by 2,584%.Overall, December exports increased by 14.66%, representing an additional 196 million kilo in Liquid Milk Equivalent (LME). USA EXPORTS IN TONS DECEMBER Product 2024 2025 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 49,938 58,927 8,989 18.00% WMP 1,869 5,253 3,384 181.06% Whey 13,118 17,607 4,489 34.22% Dairy blends/ mpc's 4,118 3,801 -317 -7.70% Mod. Whey 15,670 17,948 2,278 14.54% WPC < 80% 12,207 8,448 -3,759 -30.79% WPC80/WPI's 7,300 6,430 -870 -11.92% Casein 451 207 -244 -54.10% Caseinates 267 150 -117 -43.82% Lactose 37,491 32,419 -5,072 -13.53% I/F 1,100 1,601 501 45.55% Cheese 44,172 54,688 10,516 23.81% Butter 2,943 10,657 7,714 262.11% AMF 1,441 5,165 3,724 258.43% Cream 4,395 4,408 13 0.30% Fermented 4,939 5,760 821 16.62% Condensed 1,282 2,337 1,055 82.29% Milk 9,500 8,523 -977 -10.28% Year-to-date (YTD) through December 2025, export volumes are tracking 3.95% above the same period in 2024, representing an increase of 672 million kilo in LME terms. This growth has been partially offset by declines in several key categories, most notably SMP, WPC <80%, Casein, Lactose, Infant Formula, and Liquid Milk. While these decreases constrained overall expansion, gains in other dairy product categories more than compensated for the shortfall, allowing total YTD exports to maintain growth. USA EXPORTS IN TONS YTD DECEMBER Product 2024 2025 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 744,351 675,086 -69,265 -9.31% WMP 25,465 39,960 14,495 56.92% Whey 183,085 202,408 19,323 10.55% Dairy blends/ mpc's 44,998 51,324 6,326 14.06% Mod. Whey 176,561 189,531 12,970 7.35% WPC < 80% 154,640 119,719 -34,921 -22.58% WPC80/WPI's 89,033 92,978 3,945 4.43% Casein 6,148 5,320 -828 -13.47% Caseinates 2,394 3,729 1,335 55.76% Lactose 432,276 425,927 -6,349 -1.47% I/F 24,642 24,360 -282 -1.14% Cheese 513,866 617,354 103,488 20.14% Butter 32,097 84,009 51,912 161.73% AMF 14,069 38,561 24,492 174.08% Cream 40,172 45,245 5,073 12.63% Fermented 60,797 75,595 14,798 24.34% Condensed 17,973 26,436 8,463 47.09% Milk 114,398 108,812 -5,586 -4.88% US dairy imports in December continued their negative year-over-year trend, showing a clear gap compared with last year. December closed with a 3.02% year-over-year decrease, equivalent to approximately 10 million kilo LME. The steepest declines were recorded across most product categories, particularly among fat-based products, except for Cream, which increased. USA IMPORTS IN TONS DECEMBER Product 2024 2025 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 180 489 309 171.67% WMP 1,924 1,841 -83 -4.31% Whey 2,160 1,800 -360 -16.67% WPC <80% 2,008 2,321 313 15.59% WPC80/WPI's 1,603 1,449 -154 -9.61% MPC 4,918 5,164 246 5.00% Casein 1,677 2,768 1,091 65.06% Caseinates 2,317 2,341 24 1.04% Lactose 368 224 -144 -39.13% I/F 4,275 7,459 3,184 74.48% Cheese 20,128 14,978 -5,150 -25.59% Butter 8,011 4,241 -3,770 -47.06% AMF 1,759 537 -1,222 -69.47% Cream 3,442 6,718 3,276 95.18% Condensed 3,643 5,060 1,417 38.90% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 4,350 6,388 2,038 46.85% Milk 2,341 1,631 -710 -30.33% With overall volumes trending noticeably lower than last year, the data suggests that import growth momentum is slowing, as several key categories continue to contract.On a YTD basis through December, imports decreased by 5.53%, or 217 million kilo LME, compared with the previous year. Negative results were recorded for Whey, Casein, Caseinates, Lactose, Cheese, Butter, AMF, and Liquid Milk. This marks a further decline from November’s YTD figure of -6.03%. USA IMPORTS IN TONS YTD DECEMBER Product 2024 2025 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 623 3,120 2,497 400.80% WMP 18,478 21,899 3,421 18.51% Whey 23,987 21,563 -2,424 -10.11% WPC <80% 21,080 25,176 4,096 19.43% WPC80/WPI's 15,748 17,414 1,666 10.58% MPC 55,849 56,543 694 1.24% Casein 32,410 28,981 -3,429 -10.58% Caseinates 22,588 21,214 -1,374 -6.08% Lactose 3,420 3,190 -230 -6.73% I/F 60,725 63,302 2,577 4.24% Cheese 215,126 194,927 -20,199 -9.39% Butter 84,742 49,508 -35,234 -41.58% AMF 21,490 16,200 -5,290 -24.62% Cream 53,706 59,642 5,936 11.05% Condensed 48,035 53,214 5,179 10.78% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 49,079 66,010 16,931 34.50% Milk 24,389 23,463 -926 -3.80% Driven by strong milk production growth, YTD imports through December declined by 5.53%, equivalent to approximately 217 million kilo LME. Over the same period, US milk production increased by 2.48%, corresponding to approximately 2.54 billion kilo. This figure has not been adjusted to account for the additional day in the leap year. When corrected for the leap year, milk production growth amounts to 2.82 billion kilo LME, or 2.76%. Milk Production 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% January 8,656,000,000 8,697,000,000 41,000,000 0.47% February 7,964,551,724 8,040,000,000 75,448,276 0.95% March 8,925,000,000 9,015,000,000 90,000,000 1.01% April 8,656,000,000 8,796,000,000 140,000,000 1.62% May 8,901,000,000 9,105,000,000 204,000,000 2.29% June 8,449,000,000 8,725,000,000 276,000,000 3.27% July 8,581,000,000 8,930,000,000 349,000,000 4.07% August 8,576,000,000 8,865,000,000 289,000,000 3.37% September 8,283,000,000 8,598,000,000 315,000,000 3.80% October 8,516,000,000 8,823,000,000 307,000,000 3.60% November 8,159,000,000 8,523,000,000 364,000,000 4.46% December 8,502,000,000 8,876,000,000 374,000,000 4.40% YTD Dec 102,168,551,724 104,993,000,000 2,824,448,276 2.76% Against the backdrop of continued milk production growth, it is reasonable to expect that imports may remain under pressure. To maintain market balance, sustained export growth will be essential.