Australian dairy exports weaken, while imports increase in December

Australian dairy exports weakened significantly in December, declining by 17.28% year on year, equivalent to a reduction of 52 million kilo LME. This followed a positive performance in November, when exports increased by 8.98%, or 26.7 million kilo LME. In contrast to the LME figures, export volumes measured in commodity tons rose by 10.63%, or 3,214 tons.Most dairy product categories recorded lower export volumes in December. The only exceptions were infant formula, lactose, and liquid milk, while all other product groups declined compared with the same period last year. Australian Dairy exports December (tons) Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% SMP 17,697 13,032 -4,665 -26.36% WMP 6,726 4,436 -2,290 -34.05% Whey 1,738 1,453 -285 -16.40% I/F 1,400 1,989 589 42.07% Lactose 277 449 172 62.09% Butter 1,291 1,177 -114 -8.83% Butter Oil 405 346 -59 -14.57% Cheese 16,616 15,078 -1,538 -9.26% Milk 11,913 16,838 4,925 41.34% Total 30,225 33,439 3,214 10.63% Year-to-date export developments largely mirror the December trends. However, lactose also moved into negative territory on a year-to-date basis, driven by sharply lower import demand from New Zealand, Japan, and India. As of December, total year-to-date exports were down 8.10%, representing a decline of 245 million kilo LME. In terms of product volume, exports decreased by 4.25%, or 24,646 tons. Australian Dairy Exports YTD December (tons) Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% SMP 169,610 157,353 -12,257 -7.23% WMP 55,262 50,543 -4,719 -8.54% Whey 27,797 15,658 -12,139 -43.67% I/F 13,833 16,911 3,078 22.25% Lactose 7,953 4,219 -3,734 -46.95% Butter 16,467 9,156 -7,311 -44.40% Butter Oil 4,116 3,660 -456 -11.08% Cheese 166,644 171,642 4,998 3.00% Milk 117,548 125,442 7,894 6.72% Total 579,230 554,584 -24,646 -4.25% Milk production in Australia has remained under pressure for most of the year due to challenging weather conditions in several dairying regions and persistently tight farm margins. December marked the first month of the calendar year in which milk production showed an increase, offering a modest sign of stabilization after a prolonged period of weakness. Australia's milk production (kilograms) Month 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% January 727,200,000 708,200,000 -19,000,000 -2.61% February 601,400,000 572,400,000 -29,000,000 -4.82% March 596,100,000 595,900,000 -200,000 -0.03% April 591,800,000 594,000,000 2,200,000 0.37% May 645,100,000 620,300,000 -24,800,000 -3.84% June 596,300,000 565,100,000 -31,200,000 -5.23% July 579,400,000 556,300,000 -23,100,000 -3.99% August 681,900,000 661,500,000 -20,400,000 -2.99% September 812,500,000 808,800,000 -3,700,000 -0.46% October 917,800,000 895,900,000 -21,900,000 -2.39% November 868,000,000 849,200,000 -18,800,000 -2.17% December 799,400,000 814,100,000 14,700,000 1.84% Year to date December 8,416,900,000 8,241,700,000 -175,200,000 -2.08% Reflecting the subdued domestic milk supply throughout much of the year, dairy imports remained strong in December, rising by 8.60%, or 9.5 million kilo LME, following an even sharper increase of 45.93%, or 38 million kilo LME, in November. In terms of imported commodity volumes, December imports increased by 9.25%, or 1,716 tons. Whey and butter were the only product categories to record declines compared with December 2024. Australian Dairy Imports December (tons) Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% SMP 681 853 172 25.26% WMP 3,041 3,530 489 16.08% Whey 688 665 -23 -3.34% Cheese 8,632 10,123 1,491 17.27% Butter 4,583 3,910 -673 -14.68% Butter Oil 926 1,186 260 28.08% Total 18,551 20,267 1,716 9.25% On a year-to-date basis, import growth accelerated further in December. Cumulative imports increased by 8.99%, equivalent to 105 million kilo LME, up from 6.25%, or 70 million kilo LME, recorded in November. In product volume terms, year-to-date imports rose by 9.49%, or 18,814 tons. Australian Dairy Imports YTD December (tons) Product 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% SMP 11,432 10,009 -1,423 -12.45% WMP 37,388 38,251 863 2.31% Whey 6,219 9,628 3,409 54.82% Cheese 101,311 114,705 13,394 13.22% Butter 32,238 31,857 -381 -1.18% Butter Oil 9,559 12,511 2,952 30.88% Total 198,147 216,961 18,814 9.49%