Chinese pork export is becoming more difficult

The fact that China's import demand for pork has been showing a declining trend since 2022 is no longer news. Nevertheless, the volume and value for the market of pork by-products remained fairly stable for years. This changed, especially in the second half of 2025. After the Chinese pig farming sector faced significant production losses in the years 2019 and 2020 due to outbreaks of African swine fever (ASF), the demand for pork imports surged to record levels. In 2020, the import volume reached a record high of 5.73 million tons. The total value of this volume was nearly $14.9 billion. In that year, the share of slaughter by-products accounted for $2.9 billion of the value, with a volume of 1.34 million tons. Volume and value of meat shrink, by-products remained stable In the following years, the demand for pork products and carcasses declined, but the import demand for slaughter by-products remained at a decent level. In 2022, the volume of slaughter by-products was 1.1 million tons with a value of $2.9 billion, in 2023 it was 1.2 million tons with a value of $2.9 billion, and in 2024 the volume was still 1.2 million tons with a value of $2.7 billion. In 2025, the volume of by-products imported by China remained reasonably stable throughout the year, but the import value dropped significantly. About 1.2 million tons of slaughter by-products still crossed the border, but the export value fell to about $2.5 billion, a decrease of around 11%. Especially in the last months of the year, the Chinese market seemed saturated. In December alone, 60,000 tons were imported with a value of $110 million. In December 2024, this volume was still 90,000 tons, which represented a value of $197 million. This resulted in the value of the Chinese export market for slaughter by-products, expressed in US dollars, dropping by as much as 44%. There was already a significant shrink in November 2025. Quadrant valuation For the quadrant valuation of the pig carcass, the sale of by-products to China has been an important factor for many years. Dutch slaughterhouses confirm the negative trend of recent months and indicate that this can quickly mean euros in value per carcass. I would have liked to add some input to this; perhaps you can manage that on Monday? Pork price in China Pork production in China in 2025 was about 4.1% above the level of 2024, as reported by the news agency Reuters based on data from the Chinese Ministry of Agriculture. In the fourth quarter, production was even 7% above the level of a year earlier, reaching the highest level in the fourth quarter since 2018. The above explains why the pork price in China is under considerable pressure and the current import demand is low. The prices for pigs in the fourth quarter were at their lowest level in years. Converted to euros, the pork price was well below €1.50 per kilogram live weight. Even at the beginning of February, the pork price is still fluctuating around this level. This is significantly lower than around €2.10 per kilo live weight in 2024 or even €3.00 per kg live weight in 2022.