Wheat recovery disappears like snow in the sun

Last week, wheat prices were trending upward. It turned out to be very temporary; this week, the price gains have largely been wiped out. The wheat futures market in Paris closed on Tuesday, February 17, at €190.50 per ton. This means wheat is just above €190; the level where price formation has seemed stuck for some time. Sometimes – like now – the price is a fraction above, but just as often, the price moves slightly below that level. The wheat price in Chicago showed a bit more volatility in the past week than in Paris. A spike in the middle of last week is responsible for that. But, as so often happens, the sentiment changes quickly at the start of the following week. The March wheat future fell on Tuesday in Chicago to $5.37¾ per bushel. This is still nearly $0.10 higher than the previous week, but $0.15 lower than last Thursday. Since this week, trading in the May contracts has gained significance. Although the price fluctuations for this contract were not much different, the difference from a week ago turned out to be somewhat smaller. On Tuesday, the May contract closed at €5.42½ per bushel. A slight increase in the dollar against the euro makes the price fluctuation in Chicago, converted to euros, even slightly larger. The March contract rose €4 week on week to €167 per ton. This is the highest level for the first declining wheat contract since mid-December. The May contract is priced at €169 per ton, which is €3 per ton higher than a week ago. The price pressure from the beginning of this week is mainly attributed to the general sentiment of large stocks worldwide. This sentiment is further reinforced by higher harvest estimates for wheat in Russia. After advisory agency Ikar, the market advisory agency SovEcon also comes out with a higher estimate. Ikar raised its estimate for Russian wheat in 2026 by 3 million tons to 91 million tons. SovEcon is more cautious and raises its estimate by 2.1 million tons, resulting in an estimate of 85.9 million tons for 2026. Quick end to the recoveryThese expectations lead traders to anticipate falling prices. We can see this reflected in price developments at the beginning of this week. It quickly ended the recovery from the middle of last week. In the local markets in the Netherlands, nothing changes this week. The Beurs Zuid (Goes) and the Grain Exchange in Groningen are unanimously unchanged. Both wheat and barley are priced at €191 per ton in Groningen. The prices are under pressure, the listing committee observes. The large global stocks are cited as the reason.