Relying too heavily on exports makes agriculture vulnerable

Political tensions, stormy weather, and logistical challenges are keeping the grain market busy. Ukraine and Russia are meeting today in Geneva to discuss an end to the war. However, Russia launched another major attack on Ukrainian energy infrastructure overnight. Relying too heavily on the export of agricultural goods is a risk due to current geopolitical developments, as evidenced by figures from France. In Brazil, farmers want to harvest soybeans but rain is causing problems. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.25 higher at €191.50 per tonne. Traders in the US had a long weekend. The Chicago exchange was closed yesterday due to Presidents Day. The price of Russian wheat is on the rise. The Ikar quotation increased last week by $2 to $233 per tonne FOB (delivered on the ship). According to the agency, the weather in January severely hampered wheat exports via the ports in southern Russia. And the weather problems are not over yet. Russian exporters will also have to account for a lower export pace in February due to weather difficulties. In Ukraine, Russian attacks on energy infrastructure continue to cause problems. Last night, it happened again, with attacks carried out in twelve regions, as reported by Ukrainian President Zelensky. It was a combined attack, specifically aimed at causing as much damage as possible to our energy sector, Zelensky stated on X. In the attack last night, three employees of an energy company lost their lives. The energy infrastructure to the important port of Odessa, which is also vital for grain exports, has suffered 'very serious' damage, according to Reuters, based on reports from the Ukrainian private energy company DTEK. The energy company stated that the repair of machines and installations will take a long time. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia The timing of these Russian attacks is somewhat remarkable. Conversations between Ukraine and Russia under the supervision of the US are scheduled for today in Geneva. However, analysts do not expect a breakthrough during the two-day summit in Switzerland. Trump seems to want to increase pressure on Ukraine. We have important discussions, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One. It will be very easy. Ukraine better come to the negotiating table quickly. That's all I want to say about it. Export is opportunity and risk Dependence on the export of agricultural products to countries outside the EU threatens to become the Achilles heel of French agriculture. The trade war, diplomatic tensions with key export markets, and a relatively expensive euro are not doing the French agricultural sector any favors. The trade surplus of the French agri-food sector dropped in 2025 to the lowest level in 25 years. This is partly due to declining demand for luxury products like wine and other beverages. France's grain exports have also declined sharply. This is a consequence of the poor harvest in 2024 and the loss of a key grain buyer, Algeria, due to geopolitical tensions. According to some sources, countries that focus more on export within the EU are performing better than France. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is experiencing some delays due to rain. According to AgRural, 21% of the soybeans have been harvested compared to 24% last year in the same week. Particularly in the province of Mato Grosso, sunny days are scarce. Due to the slower pace of soybean harvesting, the planting of the subsequent maize crop is also lagging behind last year. This season, 31% of the planned area has been sown compared to 36% last year in the same week.