US beef imports are rising and remain at record highs

The US beef market has set another import record in 2026, with Australia once again among the biggest beneficiaries. With the domestic cattle herd at its smallest size since at least the early 1950s, the widening gap between supply and demand is increasingly being filled by foreign suppliers. Argentina is also gaining ground, helped in part by an expanded trade quota. US beef imports rose by 9% in 2025 to 1.61 million tons. The main reason for the significant increase in imports is the contraction of the cattle herd in the country. The exceptionally low exports from the United States are also caused by this. As of January 1, 2026, the total cattle herd stood at 86.2 million animals, the lowest level since 1951. The number of calves being retained for production is only 32.9 million, the lowest level since 1941. Due to high prices, many ranchers are choosing to send heifers to slaughter instead of keeping them for breeding purposes. This is likely delaying the recovery of the cattle herd until at least 2027. However, a turnaround is visible. At the end of last year, there was, for the first time in years, a reduction in the slaughter figures of heifers, which might mean that ranchers are slowly but surely starting to look more towards the long term. Australia remains the main supplier Just like last year, Australia managed to benefit significantly from the American malaise. Exports to the country totaled a remarkable 460,000 tons, making the export volume nearly twice as high as that of neighboring Canada. That country exported 275,000 tons of beef to the United States. It is also noteworthy that Brazil narrowly exported more beef than Mexico. Brazil exported 232,000 tons to the United States, compared to 230,000 tons from Mexico. The southern neighbors saw exports decrease significantly at the end of the year because the United States suspended imports from the country. New Zealand took the sixth position with an export of no less than 160,000 tons. Argentina on the rise Although Argentina currently only accounts for 2.4% of this import, recent data indicates a significant shift in the future. In January 2026, Argentine exports to the United States increased by 118%, to 5,900 tons compared to the same month in 2024. If Argentina fully utilizes its new total quota of 100,000 tons, the country will rise to seventh place on the list of global suppliers to the US. Moreover, the export from the South American country is complementary in nature. The additional quota of 80,000 tons mainly consists of lean trimmings, and for now, there is a structural shortage of just that product. US grain-fed cattle produce trimmings with a relatively high fat content of about 50%. This makes the United States dependent on imports of lean trimmings, especially as the demand for ground beef that consists of 90% lean meat increases.