Dairy futures decline following GDT momentum

Driven by uncertainty about the sustainability of the bullish momentum observed at the GDT Event 397 auction, particularly amid record milk collections globally, dairy futures markets corrected lower over the past week.At the CME, most dairy futures contracts moved downward. The main exceptions were butter contracts in C1 through C6 and whey in C4 through C6, which showed strength. In addition, Milk Class IV posted gains in C2 and C6.On the SGX, nearly all dairy futures contracts moved lower. SMP in C1 remained unchanged, while AMF in C1 through C3 and C5 recorded gains, with C6 unchanged. All butter contracts moved higher. Milk futures increased for 2027 and 2028, although the 2027 contract declined slightly over the week.European dairy futures on the EEX also showed predominantly negative movement. SMP was unchanged in C1 and moved higher in C3. Butter prices increased in C3 and C6, while whey posted gains across C2 through C6. Liquid milk futures were generally firmer, except for C1, which was unchanged, and C3, which moved lower.Despite the broader downward correction across futures markets, a closer look at the CME shows pockets of strength, particularly in butter and select whey contracts. CONTRACT CME Product Month 09/Feb 13/Feb ∆ ∆ % SMP February $2,932 $2,918 ↓ -0.49% March $3,307 $3,277 ↓ -0.92% April $3,229 $3,158 ↓ -2.20% May $3,131 $3,086 ↓ -1.41% June $3,094 $3,061 ↓ -1.09% July $3,087 $3,074 ↓ -0.43% Average $3,130 $3,096 ↓ -1.10% Butter February $3,521 $3,582 ↑ 1.75% March $4,034 $4,156 ↑ 3.01% April $4,123 $4,238 ↑ 2.79% May $4,255 $4,332 ↑ 1.81% June $4,332 $4,400 ↑ 1.58% July $4,407 $4,541 ↑ 3.05% Average $4,112 $4,208 ↑ 2.34% Whey February $1,543 $1,527 ↓ -1.04% March $1,527 $1,505 ↓ -1.44% April $1,466 $1,455 ↓ -0.75% May $1,411 $1,416 ↑ 0.39% June $1,396 $1,398 ↑ 0.20% July $1,356 $1,396 ↓ 2.97% Average $1,450 $1,450 ↓ -0.01% Block February $3,212 $3,183 ↓ -0.89% Cheese March $3,521 $3,375 ↓ -4.13% April $3,602 $3,499 ↓ -2.88% May $3,699 $3,602 ↓ -2.62% June $3,768 $3,728 ↓ -1.05% July $3,825 $3,803 ↓ -0.58% Average $3,605 $3,532 ↓ -2.02% Milk February $33.55 $33.20 ↓ -1.05% Class III March $36.66 $35.01 ↓ -4.51% April $37.19 $35.98 ↓ -3.26% May $38.01 $36.84 ↓ -3.07% June $38.47 $37.94 ↓ -1.38% July $38.80 $38.69 ↓ -0.28% Average $37.11 $36.28 ↓ -2.26% Milk February $34.26 $34.24 ↓ -0.06% Class IV March $39.15 $40.04 ↑ 2.25% April $39.59 $39.46 ↓ -0.33% May $39.07 $38.98 ↓ -0.23% June $39.22 $39.15 ↓ -0.17% July $39.37 $39.59 ↑ 0.56% Average $38.44 $38.58 ↑ 0.34% In the CME spot market, prices declined for whey, cheese blocks, and SMP. Cheese barrels remained unchanged, while butter prices moved higher. CME Spot market Product 09/Feb 13/Feb ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1,609 $1,587 ↓ -1.37% Cheese Blocks $3,186 $3,059 ↓ -3.98% Cheese Barrels $3,175 $3,175 ↔ 0.00% Butter $3,582 $3,759 ↑ 4.92% SMP $3,538 $3,527 ↓ -0.31% Following the bullish sentiment observed at GDT Event 397, market sentiment on the SGX shifted toward a more bearish tone over the past week. SGX Product Month 09/Feb 13/Feb ∆ ∆ % WMP January $3,640 $3,625 ↓ -0.41% February $3,765 $3,695 ↓ -1.86% March $3,825 $3,755 ↓ -1.83% April $3,825 $3,775 ↓ -1.31% May $3,825 $3,780 ↓ -1.18% June $3,735 $3,680 ↓ -1.47% Average $3,769 $3,718 ↓ -1.35% SMP January $3,000 $3,000 ↔ 0.00% February $3,245 $3,135 ↓ -3.39% March $3,270 $3,140 ↓ -3.98% April $3,255 $3,145 ↓ -3.38% May $3,270 $3,155 ↓ -3.52% June $3,215 $3,115 ↓ -3.11% Average $3,209 $3,115 ↓ -2.93% AMF January $6,500 $6,505 ↑ 0.08% February $6,600 $6,620 ↑ 0.30% March $6,550 $6,565 ↑ 0.23% April $6,550 $6,530 ↓ -0.31% May $6,400 $6,550 ↑ 2.34% June $6,200 $6,200 ↔ 0.00% Average $6,467 $6,495 ↑ 0.44% Butter January $5,830 $6,050 ↑ 3.77% February $5,825 $6,255 ↑ 7.38% March $5,875 $6,275 ↑ 6.81% April $5,875 $6,250 ↑ 6.38% May $5,875 $6,255 ↑ 6.47% June $5,845 $6,250 ↑ 6.93% Average $5,854 $6,223 ↑ 6.29% Milk Sept '26 $9.57 $9.54 ↓ -0.31% Sept '27 $9.36 $9.41 ↑ 0.53% Sept '28 $8.84 $8.98 ↑ 1.58% European dairy markets echoed this softer trend, with prices generally under pressure. EEX in EUR Product Month 09/Feb 13/Feb ∆ ∆ % SMP February €2,450 €2,450 ↔ 0.00% March €2,500 €2,425 ↓ -3.00% April €2,475 €2,494 ↑ 0.77% May €2,525 €2,471 ↓ -2.14% June €2,575 €2,513 ↓ -2.41% July €2,613 €2,519 ↓ -3.60% Average €2,523 €2,479 ↓ -1.76% Butter February €4,163 €4,138 ↓ -0.60% March €4,425 €4,350 ↓ -1.69% April €4,600 €4,610 ↑ 0.22% May €4,675 €4,650 ↓ -0.53% June €4,750 €4,650 ↓ -2.11% July €4,850 €4,888 ↑ 0.78% Average €4,577 €4,548 ↓ -0.64% Whey February €1,048 $1,040 ↓ -0.76% March €1,055 €1,063 ↑ 0.76% April €1,058 €1,075 ↑ 1.61% May €1,068 €1,085 ↑ 1.59% June €1,070 €1,108 ↑ 3.55% July €1,073 €1,120 ↑ 4.38% Average €1,062 €1,082 ↑ 1.87% Liq Milk February €42.80 €42.80 ↔ 0.00% March €39.47 €40.09 ↑ 1.57% April €37.36 €37.09 ↓ -0.72% May €37.70 €38.54 ↑ 2.23% June €38.18 €38.96 ↑ 2.04% July €38.57 €39.40 ↑ 2.15% Average €39.01 €39.48 ↑ 1.20% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1.1917 1.1867 >> -0.42% Product Month 09/Feb 13/Feb ∆ ∆ % SMP January $2,920 $2,907 ↓ -0.42% February $2,979 $2,878 ↓ -3.41% March $2,949 $2,960 ↑ 0.34% April $3,009 $2,932 ↓ -2.55% May $3,069 $2,982 ↓ -2.82% June $3,114 $2,989 ↓ -4.00% Average $3,007 $2,941 ↓ -2.17% Butter January $4,961 $4,911 ↓ -1.02% February $5,273 $5,162 ↓ -2.11% March $5,482 $5,471 ↓ -0.20% April $5,571 $5,518 ↓ -0.95% May $5,661 $5,518 ↓ -2.52% June $5,780 $5,801 ↑ 0.36% Average $5,455 $5,397 ↓ -1.06% Whey January $1,249 $1,234 ↓ -1.18% February $1,257 $1,261 ↑ 0.34% March $1,261 $1,276 ↑ 1.18% April $1,273 $1,288 ↑ 1.17% May $1,275 $1,315 ↑ 3.12% June $1,279 $1,329 ↑ 3.94% Average $1,266 $1,284 ↑ 1.44% Liq Milk January $51.00 $50.79 ↓ -0.42% February $47.04 $47.57 ↑ 1.14% March $44.52 $44.01 ↓ -1.14% April $44.93 $45.74 ↑ 1.80% May $45.50 $46.23 ↑ 1.61% June $45.96 $46.76 ↑ 1.72% Average $46.49 $46.85 ↑ 0.77% When comparing current market performance with the final trading session of 2025, a clear regional divergence emerges. Overall, most commodities are trading higher. The notable exceptions are US whey and US spot market whey, which remain under pressure. On the EEX, prices are generally higher, with liquid milk as the main outlier. SGX futures, by contrast, show broad-based gains across all contracts. Among the three major trading blocs, New Zealand stands out as the strongest overall performer. Region Product Change 13/02/'26 VS 26/12/'25 USA CME SMP 19.75% BUTTER 18.18% WHEY -2.45% BLOCK CHEESE 3.63% MILK CLASS III 3.59% MILK CLASS IV 24.36% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY -1.37% CHEDDAR BLOCKS 3.93% CHEDDAR BARRELS 2.86% BUTTER 21.57% SMP 35.59% NEW ZEALAND SGX SMP 18.04% SMP 21.87% AMF 20.28% BUTTER 27.82% MILK '26 5.41% MILK '27 16.17% MILK '28 5.03% EU EEX SMP 18.82% BUTTER 5.44% WHEY 2.35% LIQ MILK -0.68%