Government grain figures disputed

Selling wheat is one thing, but getting it out of the country is a whole different problem for Ukrainian exporters. The Ukrainian farmers' union warns that while there are sales contracts in place, Russian attacks are preventing wheat from leaving the country. In Europe, wheat exports are slightly ahead of last season. There is some discussion among experts regarding the completeness of government data and statistics. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1 higher at 190.50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat saw a stronger increase and closed up 9 cents, 1.7% higher, at $5.37¼ per bushel. Corn took a step back, closing down 1¼ cents at $4.27½ per bushel. Soybeans closed 1½ cents higher at $11.24 per bushel. Ukraine is having great difficulty exporting grain. In February, 27,000 tonnes of wheat have been exported so far, while contracts are in place for 700,000 tonnes that need to be shipped this month, writes the Ukrainian farmers' union UAC. Logistics are not in order. Ports cannot operate at full capacity due to power outages, and wheat competes with corn, which is loaded first, writes the UAC. The power outages affecting the ports are a direct result of Russian attacks on the Ukrainian energy infrastructure. Due to the logistical problems, Ukraine cannot fulfill all contracts for wheat. In January, Ukrainian exporters had undertaken obligations for the export of 620,000 tonnes, and 536,000 tonnes of wheat were actually exported. In December, there were contracts for 1 million tonnes, of which 586,000 tonnes were actually loaded. Remaining harvest of 2025 not yet lostThe harvest of 2025 is also not yet completed in Ukraine. According to the Ukrainian Secretary of State for Economic Affairs, Taras Vysotskiy, about 7% of the planted corn area has not been harvested. He told the news site censor.net: This is not an exceptional situation for Ukraine. It has happened more often in recent years. There is no reason to believe that the entire remaining harvest will be lost. It is quite possible that the quality of the corn will deteriorate, but the corn is not completely written off. The EU has exported 13.43 million tonnes of wheat by February 8, according to new figures from the European Commission. This puts exports 2% ahead compared to the same period last season. It should also be noted that the export figures from various sources, including major player France, are not entirely complete. StaffCriticism of statistics kept by the government is not exclusively a phenomenon in Europe. Reuters reports that there are doubts from various sides about the reliability of figures from the U.S. Department of Agriculture, USDA. President Trump is aiming for a significant reduction of the federal government. Thousands of people at the USDA have retired, resigned, or been laid off over the past year. Experts fear that the shrinking workforce hampers the ability of departments and agencies to produce accurate and timely data. As an example, Reuters cites the significant adjustment of U.S. corn acreage in January. The area harvested was increased by more than 5% compared to the initial estimate in June. Such a large adjustment so late in the season is unprecedented according to experts and had major consequences for the price of corn. After the adjustment by the USDA, corn prices on the futures market dropped by more than 5%. The fact that wheat closed significantly higher on the CBoT yesterday comes after the WASDE report, which was bullish with larger stocks, and was somewhat of a surprise. The volume was 137,811 contracts, the largest since November 3. The sudden increase in volume was unexpected and could be a sign that short funds (which anticipate a further declining market) have had enough of the sideways, volatile price movements and are ready to take a position that is less bearish.