Oil prices rise due to concerns about Iran

The oil price has increased again due to the situation in Iran. In addition, speculations about a possible import ban on Russian oil in India are causing extra volatility. The gas price, on the other hand, is under pressure due to warmer weather. The oil price has risen slightly this week. On Tuesday, February 10, the price of Brent oil was 2.5% higher than a week earlier, at a level of $68.98. This brings the price close to the recent peak of late January of $70.71. Although the increase is clear, it is important to keep in mind that the price was significantly above this level from 2022 until mid-2025. The slight increase in the oil price can largely be attributed to the ongoing tensions between the United States and Iran. On the one hand, the situation seems relatively stable. The countries are still talking to each other, and previous discussions have been deemed productive by both sides. However, the deal is still far from complete. The United States has not wavered from its demand that Iran must agree to a total ban on uranium enrichment. For Iran, this ban is unacceptable. Despite the relative calm, tensions have increased slightly. In particular, a warning to the shipping company caused tensions. On Monday, February 9, the U.S. government advised ships flying the U.S. flag to avoid the Strait of Hormuz. U.S. President Donald Trump explicitly called on ships to stay as far away as possible from Iranian territorial waters. If ships choose that route, the United States advises sailing as close as possible to the territorial waters of Oman. The United States issues the warning in light of Iran's potential desire to intercept U.S. ships, but the warning also fuels fears that military actions may follow if the talks go awry. The world is watching India Meanwhile, the oil sector is also keeping an eye on India. Although oil did not play a role during the recent joint press conference between Trump and Indian President Narendra Modi, Trump later indicated that India is halting both direct and indirect Russian imports. Intense negotiations are taking place in the country over a new trade agreement between the Asian country and the United States. As part of the deal, Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum, and Reliance Industries have indicated that they will not conclude new contracts for Russian oil for March and April. Diesel prices remain flat The diesel price is not moving directly and remains quite flat this week. The price increased by only 0.3% compared to the previous week to €133.67. Gas prices tempered by mild weather The gas price has been as mild as the weather, which is the main factor putting pressure on prices. Except for a clear spike on Friday, February 6, the gas price remained at a lower level than we saw in the second half of January. During that period, the price of natural gas was considerably higher, as it was significantly colder than expected. Meanwhile, cold days are interspersed with days that feel more like spring, resulting in lower gas demand for heating than one would expect at this time of year.