Enthusiasm is lacking in the grain market

Concerns about frost damage in winter grains are easing a bit on the grain market now that the worst cold in both Europe and the US is temporarily behind us. Instead, there is more talk about the strong competition, especially in the wheat market. In Brazil, the soybean harvest is in full swing, and the threshing is ahead of last season. Rain in some important soybean provinces has temporarily halted the harvest train. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.50 lower at €189.50 per tonne. Wheat also took a small step back on the CBoT and closed 1 cent lower at $5.28¾ per bushel. Corn lost 1½ cents to $4.28¾ per bushel. Soybeans were the biggest loser in the last trading session, dropping 4½ cents to $11.10¾ per bushel. Concerns about a relatively expensive euro compared to the dollar are overshadowing reports of potential frost damage in winter wheat on the European market. A more expensive euro poses an additional obstacle for European exporters in the global market, where it is already competitive to win over buyers. There is indeed strong competition from grain from the Black Sea region and Argentina. Significantly lower export from Ukraine Grain exports from Ukraine, by the way, are not going smoothly either. APK-Inform has lowered the export forecast for the 2025/26 season by 10.4% from 45.2 million tonnes to 40.5 million tonnes. The wheat export has been reduced by 2.2 million tonnes to 14.5 million tonnes. The export expectation for corn has been lowered from 25.5 million tonnes to 23.5 million tonnes. APK-Inform expects Ukraine to export 2.0 million tonnes of barley compared to 2.5 million tonnes in the previous forecast. Due to the lower exports, the ending grain stock has been significantly revised upwards from 6.8 million tonnes to 11.5 million tons. The ending stock consists among other things of 4 million tonnes of wheat, 4.3 million tons of corn, and 2 million tonnes of corn. According to data from the Ukrainian Ministry of Economics, 19.38 million tonnes of grain have been exported this season so far compared to 26.45 million tonnes over the same period last season. APK-Inform states that the lower exports this season are a direct result of the Russian bombings on the Ukrainian port and energy infrastructure. Other sources mention, in addition to the war, the poor sentiment in the international grain market and the late harvest in parts of Ukraine as reasons for the export backlog. Restrictions from the European Union on grain from Ukraine are mentioned less often, but some analysts say this also plays a role. Top harvest On the soybean market, the statements from Trump about additional demand for soybeans from China are fading a bit. With a price of just over $11 per bushel, US soybeans are about $1 per bushel more expensive than Brazilian soybeans. In Brazil's largest soybean-producing province of Mato Grosso, 40% of the soybean area has been harvested compared to 28% last year this week. Overall in Brazil, 16% of the harvest is in, compared to 10% last week and 15% last year this week. Although the soybean harvest in Brazil is progressing smoothly and a record harvest of 180 million tonnes is predicted, some analysts believe it is not yet a done deal for Brazilian growers. Rain in the past 48 hours in parts of Mato Grosso and Goiás has temporarily halted the harvest. Even more importantly, the rain is not good for the quality of the ripe soybeans.