US dairy import contract amid production and exports expansion

November 2025 delivered strong overall export results compared with the previous year, despite several category-specific declines. Exports of WPC <80 fell sharply by -34.11%, while WPC80/WPI declined by -5.33%. Infant formula (I/F) dropped by -28.03%. Cream exports decreased by -17.17%, and liquid milk exports fell by -5.60%.All other commodities recorded growth, with fat-based products showing exceptional performance. Whole milk powder (WMP) increased by +57.84%, cheese rose by +27.88%, butter surged by +246.01%, and anhydrous milk fat (AMF) expanded by +184.04%. Overall, November exports increased by +14.52%, representing an incremental volume of 188.8 million kilo in liquid milk equivalent (LME). USA EXPORTS IN METRIC TONNES Nov 2025 Product Nov '24 Nov '25 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 54,941 55,003 62 0.11% WMP 2,443 3,856 1,413 57.84% Whey 14,535 17,312 2,777 19.11% Dairy blends/ mpc's 2,779 4,169 1,390 50.02% Mod. Whey 12,163 19,108 6,945 57.10% WPC < 80% 12,086 7,963 -4,123 -34.11% WPC80/WPI's 7,790 7,375 -415 -5.33% Casein 449 180 -269 -59.91% Caseinates 186 190 4 2.15% Lactose 31,744 33,465 1,721 5.42% I/F 2,447 1,761 -686 -28.03% Cheese 39,932 51,065 11,133 27.88% Butter 3,308 11,446 8,138 246.01% AMF 1,385 3,934 2,549 184.04% Cream 4,693 3,887 -806 -17.17% Fermented 5,133 6,214 1,081 21.06% Condensed 1,833 1,903 70 3.82% Milk 10,379 9,798 -581 -5.60% Year-to-date export volumes through November 2025 are tracking +3.05% above the same period in 2024, representing an additional 477 million kilo in LME. Growth has been tempered by declines in several key categories, most notably SMP, WPC <80, casein, lactose, I/F, and liquid milk. However, gains in other dairy product categories have more than offset these shortfalls, allowing total YTD exports to expand. USA EXPORTS IN METRIC TONNES YTD Nov 2025 Product YTD Nov '24 YTD Nov '25 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 694,713 616,159 -78,554 -11.31% WMP 23,597 34,708 11,111 47.09% Whey 169,966 184,801 14,835 8.73% Dairy blends/ mpc's 40,879 47,523 6,644 16.25% Mod. Whey 160,891 171,583 10,692 6.65% WPC < 80% 142,033 111,271 -30,762 -21.66% WPC80/WPI's 81,733 86,549 4,816 5.89% Casein 5,697 5,112 -585 -10.27% Caseinates 2,127 3,579 1,452 68.27% Lactose 394,786 393,508 -1,278 -0.32% I/F 23,542 22,759 -783 -3.33% Cheese 469,694 562,666 92,972 19.79% Butter 29,154 73,351 44,197 151.60% AMF 12,628 33,396 20,768 164.46% Cream 35,777 40,837 5,060 14.14% Fermented 55,858 69,835 13,977 25.02% Condensed 16,690 24,099 7,409 44.39% Milk 104,898 100,289 -4,609 -4.39% US dairy imports in November continued to show negative year-over-year performance, widening the gap compared with last year. November closed with a -18.06% decrease versus November 2024, equivalent to roughly 55 million kilo in LME. The steepest declines were observed across most product groups, particularly fat-based products, except for cream, which increased.With overall import volumes declining significantly compared with last year, the data suggests that import growth momentum is slowing, as several key categories continue to contract. Growth was recorded in SMP, WPC <80, lactose, I/F, and most liquid products. USA IMPORTS IN METRIC TONNES Nov 2025 Product Nov '24 Nov '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 17 407 390 2294.12% WMP 2,875 1,535 -1,340 -46.61% Whey 1,830 1,710 -120 -6.56% WPC <80% 1,678 2,029 351 20.92% WPC80/WPI's 1,292 966 -326 -25.23% MPC 4,684 3,959 -725 -15.48% Casein 2,769 2,270 -499 -18.02% Caseinates 2,001 1,280 -721 -36.03% Lactose 349 388 39 11.17% I/F 3,663 6,807 3,144 85.83% Cheese 21,296 17,234 -4,062 -19.07% Butter 10,829 3,152 -7,677 -70.89% AMF 885 639 -246 -27.80% Cream 4,256 6,726 2,470 58.04% Condensed 3,838 5,696 1,858 48.41% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 4,199 6,263 2,064 49.15% Milk 1,923 2,195 272 14.14% The November YTD import data shows a decrease of -6.03%, or 216 million kilo in LME, compared with the previous year. Negative results were recorded for whey, MPC, casein, caseinates, lactose, I/F, cheese, butter, AMF, and liquid milk. Driven by excessive milk production growth, YTD imports through November have decreased by -6.03%, down from -5.11% in October. USA IMPORTS IN METRIC TONNES YTD Nov 2025 Product YTD Nov '24 YTD Nov '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 443 2,631 2,188 493.91% WMP 16,555 20,058 3,503 21.16% Whey 21,827 19,673 -2,154 -9.87% WPC <80% 19,072 22,855 3,783 19.84% WPC80/WPI's 12,959 14,655 1,696 13.09% MPC 51,932 51,380 -552 -1.06% Casein 30,733 26,213 -4,520 -14.71% Caseinates 20,271 18,773 -1,498 -7.39% Lactose 3,052 2,966 -86 -2.82% I/F 56,450 55,844 -606 -1.07% Cheese 195,000 180,000 -15,000 -7.69% Butter 76,730 45,267 -31,463 -41.00% AMF 19,731 15,663 -4,068 -20.62% Cream 50,264 52,924 2,660 5.29% Condensed 44,392 48,154 3,762 8.47% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 44,729 59,622 14,893 33.30% Milk 22,048 21,831 -217 -0.98% As of November YTD, milk production in the US increased by +2.48%, equivalent to approximately 2.54 billion kilo. This figure has not been adjusted to account for the additional day in the leap year. Corrected for the leap year effect, total production growth is estimated at +2.76%, or roughly 2.82 billion kilo in LME. Milk Production 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% January 8,656,000,000 8,697,000,000 41,000,000 0.47% February 7,964,551,724 8,040,000,000 75,448,276 0.95% March 8,925,000,000 9,015,000,000 90,000,000 1.01% April 8,656,000,000 8,796,000,000 140,000,000 1.62% May 8,901,000,000 9,105,000,000 204,000,000 2.29% June 8,449,000,000 8,725,000,000 276,000,000 3.27% July 8,581,000,000 8,930,000,000 349,000,000 4.07% August 8,576,000,000 8,865,000,000 289,000,000 3.37% September 8,283,000,000 8,598,000,000 315,000,000 3.80% October 8,516,000,000 8,823,000,000 307,000,000 3.60% November 8,159,000,000 8,523,000,000 364,000,000 4.46% December 8,502,000,000 8,876,000,000 374,000,000 4.40% YTD Dec 102,168,551,724 104,993,000,000 2,824,448,276 2.76% Current stocks, as reported by the USDA, stand at 4.82 billion kilo in LME. This represents a decrease of -1.75% since the start of the year and -1.62% compared with the previous month. Although reports from the US continue to highlight concerns about high grocery prices, the data suggests that domestic consumption has risen by +2.01% YTD through November for the products covered in this report. Current theoretical stocks represent 4.60% of YTD November milk production. Against the backdrop of continued milk production growth, imports may be expected to remain under pressure. For a healthy market balance, it will be necessary for exports to continue expanding.