Stronger euro further drives down wheat price

The wheat price was under pressure yesterday on the futures market in Paris mainly due to a stronger euro against the dollar. Chicago had a weaker day, causing prices there to hardly budge. In Paris, the March contract for wheat fell by €1.75 to €187.25 per tonne. This means the price is even further below €190 per tonne, after already declining on Monday. Delivery in December (new harvest) just barely remains dry if you assume that the wheat price only becomes interesting starting at €200 per tonne. There is not much more to be expected for now. You would have to trade for delivery in March 2028 to get near prices that are somewhat close to €220 per tonne. At this moment, the strong euro is adversely affecting the export of European wheat. The exchange rate even rose to just above $1.20, which significantly hinders trade. This makes wheat from Europe more expensive compared to competing trade that takes place in dollars. In Chicago, trading was calmer than in the previous days. The wintry weather has kept emotions there quite occupied, but its effect is fading somewhat. Moreover, it still needs to be seen whether the low temperatures have actually caused damage. Whether yesterday was calm before the storm remains to be seen. Prices hardly moved. For delivery in March, there was a slight increase, prices remained stable for May, and there was a small decrease for later deliveries. In the Netherlands, grain quotes remain predominantly stable this week. For wheat, there is a small increase in Groningen to €190 per tonne, but nothing else is changing. The pricing committee of the grain exchange in Groningen notes that prices remain under pressure due to lower offers in southern countries. The stronger euro makes it difficult for trade in the European Union to export, which significantly increases pressure on the internal market. On the other hand, exports within the EU this year are experiencing much less impact from wheat from Ukraine. The import from that country remains stuck at less than 500,000 tonnes, while around 3.3 million tonnes of Ukrainian wheat were brought into the EU in the same period last year. On the other hand, there is somewhat more wheat coming into the EU from Canada and also slightly more from Serbia. Overall, the total import of soft wheat this season remains limited to just under 2.3 million tonnes. This amount is 2.7 million tonnes smaller than in the same period last season.