Brazilian beef exports break record early

The Brazilian beef export has already set a new annual record in the first eleven months of 2025. The reason for this is simple: the export prices of beef have clearly fallen less than the prices in Europe and the United States. However, due to Chinese import tariffs, it is questionable whether the results will be as strong again next year. The Brazilian beef export set a record in November 2025 for the third consecutive month. The export reached the highest level ever. The total volume for that month was 352,566 tons. This is an increase of no less than 36.3% compared to November 2024. For the entire year, the export broke the record output of 2024 in November. In the first eleven months, Brazil exported 8.5% more beef than in the record-breaking year before. Due to the high global beef prices, the value record over the first eleven months is even stronger. In total, exports increased by 25.5% to $16.1 billion. Notably, the value per ton for the entire year did not set a record. The average export price stood at $5,170 per ton, which is 9.7% less than the $5,730 per ton in 2022. The average export value increased by 15.6% compared to 2024. This seems like a significant increase, but compared to a rise in cattle prices of over 40% that we saw in the United States and the European Union, the increase appears limited. This percentage clearly shows what was happening in the Brazilian beef market. While prices worldwide set records, the increase in Brazil remained relatively limited, partly due to strong supply. This created very strong demand for beef from the South American country. Changing ratios The higher international demand has caused some clear shifts in exports. For instance, the European Union has become the third-largest importer of Brazilian beef this year. The year before, the European Union ranked sixth. Total exports increased by 30% from 109,913 tons in 2024 to 142,940 tons in the first eleven months of 2025. Exports to the United States also increased significantly. The export rose by 6.4% from 229,808 tons in 2024 to 244,593 tons in the first eleven months of 2025. This increase seems limited, but it comes on top of a very substantial rise in 2024 due to the tight U.S. market. Since 2023, imports have increased by no less than 76.4%. In 2023, the export was only 138,669 tons. Meanwhile, in China, the import of Brazilian beef rose by 13.3% from just over 1.3 million tons to just under 1.5 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025. Thus, Brazil is by far the largest exporter of beef to the Asian country. The increase is remarkable since China has been importing more beef than it can absorb since 2023. This is the result of high domestic production costs. New quota may throw a wrench in the works The expectation is that the export volume will decrease significantly. Even at the current high global beef prices, importing beef is profitable. The low costs in Brazil mean that the country, along with Australia, benefits the most from this. Meanwhile, Chinese livestock farmers have not been profitable since 2023. To curb imports, China established a quota for various countries at the beginning of 2026. The quota will increase slightly each year over the next three years, reaching 1.1 million tons in 2026. Above that volume, a new import tariff of 55% will apply. Although imports from Brazil are relatively cheap, the price difference is clearly lower than this tariff.