Does avian influenza actually lead to lower broiler prices?

The poultry meat price seems to have interrupted its decline, but meanwhile, the broiler price is still slowly edging downwards. It is remarkable that avian influenza has no price-increasing effect but rather puts pressure on broiler prices. The European poultry meat price has seen a slight increase of 0.7%, according to the weighted average of the European Union. This shows that the price pressure that started at the end of last year has remained limited. On a monthly basis, the recovery is even slightly stronger. According to the lowest reports from the European Union (which are about two weeks behind), the price has even increased by 2.6% over a period of one month. It is remarkable that the poultry price continues to move in the opposite direction. For instance, the average slaughter price in the Netherlands (the VNC) has decreased by 1 cent to €1.10 per kilogram. The lower prices are visible in almost all of Northern Europe. In Belgium, the Dijnze listing also fell by 1 cent from €1.20 per kilogram to €1.19 per kilogram. Notably, the free market price remains stable at a level of €1.16 per kilogram. Since the Belgian poultry price is clearly above the Dutch price, this price predominantly moves along with the Belgian market. Supply not badThe decline in the poultry meat price can partly be attributed to an increase in supply. Data from the European Union show that the number of placements in the EU has recovered since September 2025. Up to the end of August, the number of placements in most countries lagged behind the previous year, but since autumn, the supply has clearly increased compared to the previous months. This indicates an attempt to restore supply to take advantage of the attractive broiler prices from last year. The effects of the higher supply are also noticeable in Poland. Until autumn, the Polish broiler price was higher than the Dutch. At its peak, as much as €1.44 per kilogram was paid in the Eastern European country. However, since autumn, the Polish price has been under significant pressure. Firstly, the meat price has clearly decreased, but slaughterhouses have not managed to lower slaughter prices. This was due to a low supply caused by the high purchasing price of hatching eggs. This made placing broilers quite expensive and low slaughter prices resulted in empty slaughter hooks, leading to even higher costs for slaughterhouses. Meanwhile, the availability of hatching eggs has significantly improved, resulting in a substantial increase in supply in the Eastern European country. This led to a decrease in the slaughter price of 20% to €1.15 per kilogram in week 2. Avian influenza actually puts pressure on pricesIn addition, the high activity of avian influenza, according to insiders in the market, paradoxically leads to lower poultry prices. This is largely due to the strong supply. The reason for this is that exports to a significant number of markets are blocked. This means that the supply must be sold locally, increasing competition and putting pressure on the price.