North American potato acreage hits record low

A combination of a good harvest in 2025 and less demand for potato products in the export markets means that potato processors in the United States and Canada will contract fewer potatoes again this year. Growers also have to expect slightly lower prices. Last year, the potato acreage in the United States decreased by 7,900 hectares to 366,600 hectares. That was the smallest acreage since 2010. In Canada, the acreage actually increased by 3,890 hectares to 160,200 hectares. That is a record for the country, where expansion of potato processing has created more demand for potatoes. Second smallest harvest It is still early, but the acreage is expected to decrease this year in both countries. Especially because potato processors have less need for potatoes. A good harvest last fall has provided a lot of potatoes, with hectare yields slightly above average in the US. Due to the acreage reduction, the total potato volume reached the second lowest level ever and is 2.2% less than what was harvested in 2024. However, the USDA raised the expectation further at the beginning of this year to 19.04 million tonnes. This means the yield has increased by 36,000 tonnes compared to the November estimate. In Canada, the situation is quite the opposite. After an increase in acreage, there was a smaller potato harvest due to lower production per hectare. This was caused by the ongoing drought last summer. Profitability under pressure For potato growers in both countries, earnings are at a low level. Not much different from their European counterparts. The American Growers Returns Index (GRI), which shows what is earned from potatoes, has for example halved this season in the largest potato state Idaho. In Washington, the second largest state, the price level is also nearly 55% lower. The current situation is comparable to 2010, when prices were also under significant pressure. At that time, considerably fewer potatoes were planted, causing the acreage to shrink by nearly 14,000 hectares to a record low. Insiders expect that a similar movement is not unthinkable this year, although it is likely to be less severe. Insiders expect a decline of around 3% in area, which is still 11,000 hectares. This means that potato cultivation in the US will reach its lowest level ever. Prices of other crops including wheat, barley, corn, soybeans, and alfalfa are slightly lower than last year. Because the risks are smaller than with potatoes, arable farmers do have an alternative to grow. Declining fries export No contract prices have yet been released for the US. In Canada, a price decrease of 2% to 3% compared to last year is being discussed, while the contracted volumes remain stable. In October, Canada exported 8% less fries compared to the same month a year ago. With 83%, the US remains the largest buyer, but its share has decreased. In 2024, nearly 85% of Canadian fries were imported during October. However, Canadian exporters are managing to attract new customers. The volume exported outside North America grew to record highs. In October, 33,500 tonnes more fries were exported. An increase of 1.7% year on year. Mexico and Japan are the two fastest-growing customers. Despite the smaller harvest, the stored potato volume as of January 1 was nearly 3% higher than a year earlier in Canada. This involves 108,000 tonnes of potatoes, which is nearly 10% more than the five-year average. Especially in the province of Alberta, the storage facilities are fuller of potatoes than usual. It is even about 30% more. The processing level across all segments decreased by 13% in December, which may explain the high inventory. Slower processing pace To process all the potatoes from growers in Alberta, the volume in factories must significantly increase. If the pace remains at the December level, it may keep the companies supplied with potatoes until the end of this year. The volume of processing potatoes in the four largest provinces was 2.5% higher on January 1, mainly due to the large stock in Alberta. Fry factories took in 7.2% fewer potatoes in December compared to the same month in 2024.