Wheat stocks remain at comfortable levels

As far as tons are concerned, 2025/26 was a good grain year. The International Grains Council (IGC) has revised the global yield upwards by 31 million tons. Consumption is also higher but is rising less sharply than production. Lower yields are predicted for the upcoming wheat harvest. The IGC is not alone in this. In America, there is activity surrounding Trump's plans for biofuels. The agri- and oil lobby are directly opposed to each other. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.50 higher at €189.25 per ton. On the CBoT, wheat closed 2 cents lower at $5.10½ per bushel. Corn also lost some value, coming in 1¾ cents lower at $4.20¼ per bushel. Soybeans were on the rise on the Chicago exchange, closing 10½ cents higher at $10.53 per bushel. The IGC has revised its estimate for the global grain harvest upwards by 31 million tons compared to the previous estimate in November, now at 2.461 billion tons. Among others, corn in the US and China, wheat in Argentina and Canada, and barley in Australia and Canada have performed better than previously expected. The consumption of grain has also been revised upwards, but less sharply than production. According to the IGC, total consumption is projected at 2.416 billion tons. This is 16 million tons more than in the November estimate. The wheat harvest for the 2025/26 season is set at 842 million tons. This was estimated at 830 million tons in November according to the IGC, and last season's global harvest was 801 million tons. Smaller harvest in 2026The area planted with wheat for the 2026/27 season is expected to decline slightly. Assuming average yields, next year's harvest will initially decrease by about 2% year-on-year, writes the IGC. The demand for wheat will reach a new peak, and as a result, wheat stocks will decrease slightly, predicts the IGC. However, the organization does not foresee a turnaround in the market. Total wheat stocks among the major exporters are expected to remain at a comfortable level. A comfortable level of wheat stocks, to use the IGC's terminology, also remains in play within the EU. Market bureau Expana has lowered the EU's export forecast for wheat by 1.2 million tons to 28.8 million tons. If the EU wants to reach that volume, exporters will need to work hard. According to data from the European Commission, 11.6 million tons of wheat have been exported so far this season up to January 11. A year earlier, it was 11.8 million tons, and at that time, total exports amounted to 21.5 million tons. The forecast for the wheat harvest of 2026 has been raised by Expana by 300,000 tons compared to the December estimate, to 128.6 million tons. The growth conditions for wheat in the EU are good, the bureau notes. Nevertheless, the harvest is 8.6 million tons lower than that of 2025. Last season, yields in the EU were exceptionally good. Expana expects yields for the upcoming harvest to be more in line with the long-term average. BiodieselIn the US, there is some commotion over Trump's plans for the blending of biofuels into gasoline and diesel. Trump will announce the final blending quotas in early March. Reuters reports based on sources that Trump is likely to stick closely to the proposal from the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). There is reportedly a target of a quota of 5.2 to 5.6 billion gallons (20 to 21 million cubic meters) of biodiesel. The lower end of the range is related to the EPA's plan to lower the value of certificates for imported biofuels. This America First policy has been seen as a victory by the soybean and biodiesel industry. Major oil companies, led by the American Petroleum Institute, argued that limiting the certificates for foreign supplies could restrict availability and drive up fuel prices.