Estimates for Russian wheat exports raised

The supply of wheat from the Black Sea region continues to exert pressure on the European wheat market. Shipping in the region is not without risk following the recent drone attacks, according to marine insurers. In a short time, the insurance premium has nearly doubled. In the US, the market showed a cautious recovery after the blow from the Wasde report at the beginning of this week. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1.50 lower at €188.75 per ton. On the CBoT, the grains showed a modest increase. Wheat closed 2 cents higher at $5.12½ per bushel. Corn rose by 2¼ cents to $4.22 per bushel. Soybeans were somewhat stronger and closed 7¼ cents higher at $10.30½ per bushel. The supply of wheat from the Black Sea region continues to put pressure on the European wheat market. Market agency Ikar increased its estimate for wheat exports from Russia in the 2025/26 season by 2.4 million tons to 46.5 million tons. Sovecon estimates that Russia will export 3 to 3.4 million tons of wheat in January, compared to 2.3 million tons in January 2025. For the entire 2025/26 season, Sovecon estimates Russian exports at 44.6 million. This forecast aligns with the USDA's earlier prediction this week that Russian exports remained unchanged at 44 million tons in the Wasde report. The recent drone attacks on ships in the Black Sea have raised concerns among marine insurers. This week, two oil tankers owned by a Greek shipping company have become victims of drone attacks. One ship sails under the Maltese flag and the other under the flag of Liberia. The vessels did not sustain significant damage during the attack, according to Greek authorities to the French news agency AFPT. At least one of these ships was en route to load oil from Kazakhstan near the Russian port of Novorossiysk. The premium to insure a ship for a trip in the Black Sea has increased significantly due to the threat of drones. At the end of December, the premium was 0.6% to 0.8% of the insured value of the ship. It has now risen to around 1%, Reuters reports based on industry sources. This raises the premium to the highest level since 2023. These policies normally last for seven days, but insurers are now reviewing the terms every 24 hours. Just a month ago, this was generally done every 48 hours. David Smith, head of maritime affairs at insurance broker McGill and Partners, told Reuters that the premiums are very volatile, with price fluctuations from day to day. The insurance premium also depends on the value of the ship, the ownership structure, and the intended port. In the US, grains and soybeans showed a cautious sign of recovery yesterday after the hit the market took from the Wasde report. A record production of an average of 1.196 million barrels of ethanol per day in the week of January 9 has restored some confidence. According to some analysts, speculators are anticipating a potentially more favorable attitude from Trump regarding biofuels. Trump could support the American agricultural sector by, for example, introducing a mandatory higher blending percentage for biofuels. The US Supreme Court was supposed to rule yesterday on the import tariffs imposed by Trump. The court's ruling has once again been postponed, and no new date has been announced. Several countries, including China, have taken countermeasures (such as banning US agricultural products) against the US import tariffs. There is significant criticism from the American agricultural sector regarding Trump's trade policy, which they believe has exacerbated price declines for soybeans, among others.