Investigation by Mexico could shake up the global market

The global pork market has come under increasing pressure in recent months, as the market faces new Chinese import tariffs and outbreaks of avian influenza in Spain. Additionally, there is another risk looming over the market. At the end of last year, Mexico launched an anti-dumping and countervailing duty investigation into the import of American hams and shoulders. Possible measures against the United States could have significant effects on the global market. The investigation was initiated in response to complaints from domestic producers, who claim that American suppliers are offering their products at unfairly low prices and benefiting from government support. The investigation focuses on imports from 2022 to 2024 and their effects on the Mexican pork sector during those years. The measure follows requests from five Mexican pork companies and applies to pork of American origin, even when imported via third countries. Possible tariffs are still on the table, despite existing tariff exemptions. The complainant companies argue that these imports were sold below cost or supported by subsidies, which puts pressure on the competitive position of the Mexican pork industry. According to the Mexican Ministry of Economy, imports from the United States have steadily increased in recent years. This can be substantiated with figures. In 2015, the United States exported approximately 719,000 tonnes of pork to its southern neighbor, according to data from the American Meat Export Federation (USMEF). By 2024, this volume had increased to about 1,155,000 tonnes. Significant consequences Possible measures against the United States could have a strongly negative impact on American exports. Mexico has been the main market for American pork for years. In the first ten months of 2026 alone, the United States exported over 1 million tonnes of pork. During that period, this accounted for 41.6% of total exports. If exports to Mexico become significantly less attractive due to measures, it will have clear consequences for the global market, as these volumes will need to be redistributed elsewhere. For Europe, the effects will primarily be visible in South Korea and Japan, where competition between American and European exporters is very strong. The European Union exported approximately 332,500 tonnes of pork to Japan in 2024, compared to American exports of 336,500 tonnes. Exports to South Korea that year amounted to 237,000 tonnes for the EU, compared to 214,500 tonnes of American pork. Presumably, lower American prices in these markets will have more impact than any new opportunities in Mexico. The European export to that country in 2025 amounted to only about 13,700 tonnes.