Panic in maize due to large American harvest

The United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) released the Wasde report. The figures on maize caused a small shockwave. The March contract lost more than 5% and maize fell to its lowest point since October on the Chicago exchange. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed €2.50 lower at €189.25 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat closed 6 cents lower at $5.11¼ per bushel. The largest decliner during the last trading session on the Chicago exchange was maize, which lost 24¼ cents to $4.21½ per bushel. Soybeans were also in the red, closing 15½ lower at $10.33 per bushel. The maize harvest in the US is larger compared to the previous edition of the Wasde report. Last fall, 17.0 billion bushels (approximately 431 million tonnes) of maize were harvested according to the USDA, a record harvest. That is 269 million bushels (approximately 6.8 million tonnes) more than was anticipated in the December edition of the Wasde report. The previous record harvest was achieved in 2023. The harvest for 2025 exceeds that by 1.7 billion bushels (approximately 43 million tonnes). The average yield has been increased by 0.5 bushels to 186.5 bushels per acre (approximately 11.7 tonnes per hectare). The harvested area has also been revised upward by 1.3 million acres. Price dropThe USDA's upward revision of the maize harvest figures came as a surprise to analysts and traders. A Reuters poll last week indicated that analysts expected the USDA to revise both the yield and the harvested area downward in the January edition of the Wasde report. The effect on the market was unmistakable. As mentioned, maize fell by more than 5%, to the lowest price since October. The global ending stock of maize has also been significantly increased by the USDA. The ending stock for the 2025/26 season is now estimated at 290.9 million tonnes. This is 11.8 million tonnes more than in the previous report. The increase is primarily due to new figures from China regarding the maize harvest there, writes the USDA. A record amount of maize has also been harvested in China, namely 301.2 million tonnes, according to the USDA based on new figures from the Chinese statistics bureau. Larger wheat stockFor wheat, the Wasde report was also bearish in tone. The total amount of wheat (beginning stocks plus production) available globally this season has been increased by 4.3 million tonnes to 1,102.2 million tonnes. This adjustment is mainly due to a larger harvest in Argentina and Russia. The Argentine wheat harvest has been increased by the USDA by 3.5 million tonnes to a record of 27.5 million tonnes. The total harvest comes to 842.2 million tonnes of wheat. Global wheat consumption has been increased by 0.9 million tonnes to 823.9 million tons. The ending stock of wheat is therefore 3.4 million tonnes higher at 278.3 million tonnes. After two seasons of drawing down the wheat stock, production in 2025/26 exceeds consumption. For comparison: in 2024/25, 801 million tonnes of wheat were harvested and consumption was 811 million tonnes. Soybeans in China disappointSoybeans and other oilseeds followed more or less the same trend as grains in the Wasde report. Global oilseed production was increased by 2.9 million tonnes to 693.2 million tonnes. Global soybean production is 3.1 million tonnes larger than in the December report, at 425.7 million tonnes. The harvests in Brazil and the US are better than previously estimated, but on the other hand, less soybeans were harvested in China. The ending stock of oilseeds has been increased by 1.5 million tonnes to 145.1 million tonnes.