Winter dip in egg prices remains due to avian influenza

The egg prices in Northern Europe have slightly declined after Christmas. However, the bottom seems to be in sight faster than usual. The demand remains strong and due in part to avian influenza, companies are finding it difficult to keep up with the supply. The egg market remains exceptionally tight in the new year. Across Europe, the supply is clearly lower than is typical at this time of year. In particular, the demand for free-range eggs and eggs with a (still) higher animal welfare standard is stronger than the supply. As a result, prices in the new year have not, as usual, dropped, but have remained the same. This is evident from data from Eurostat. Meanwhile, there is pressure on the prices of cage eggs. This is partly a result of the popularity of this category in Southern Europe. Although free-range eggs are increasingly being promoted in these countries, cage eggs remain popular in these parts of Europe for now. Because the pressure from avian influenza is less strong in these areas, cage egg prices are, on average, slightly under pressure. Dutch egg price rises earlier than expectedIn the Netherlands, prices even rose earlier than one would expect based on historical data. In week 3, the Dutch egg price increased by 5 cents, according to the AG index. Based on the five-year average, one would expect that the increase in the egg price would start around week 5. The reason for this is simple. Around early February, the egg market begins to gear up for the Easter holidays. That prices are already beginning to rise despite the historically high level is due to very strong tightness in the Dutch egg market. This is largely a result of the strong demand for eggs. Eggs find a buyer very quickly. The main reasons for this are a structurally higher demand for table eggs due to the healthy image of eggs. Additionally, the growing demand for highly processed products is contributing to a stronger industrial demand. In practice, it turns out to be impossible for the egg sector to keep up with this strong demand. Moreover, unlike in previous years, the Netherlands has not been able to keep avian influenza out of the barns. The number of infections continues to rise significantly, keeping the tension around the supply intact. German price slightly lowerIn Germany, the egg price has also declined at the beginning of the year. A new Weser-Ems quotation for week 3 has not yet been released, so it is not yet clear whether prices, like in the Netherlands, have taken a step up. However, it is clear that the decline in the first two weeks has been limited. Despite the high level, the price decreased by only 1.6% in the early weeks of the year (during which trading is generally somewhat quieter). This is a result of an exceptionally high demand. Packing stations report that orders are much larger than is typical for this time of year. Companies in the sector indicate that extra shifts have been worked. Even during the holidays, sales barely slowed down. The expectation in the market is that the bottom is in sight and that prices, like last year, will quickly rise again in anticipation of Easter.