Competition changes the rules in the fries market

Asia has turned the global French fries market upside down in the past year with sharply falling selling prices. As a result, potato processors in countries like China and India have rapidly gained market share. Manufacturers in the traditional producing countries, the United States and Northwest Europe, are forced to adapt to this. Where for many years the processing and trade flows of potatoes and fries were dominated by Europe and North America, the focus is now shifting towards Asia and parts of Africa. A series of reports shows that this shift is not temporary, but structural: a new phase in which price competition, explosive export growth from low-cost countries, and rapidly changing consumption patterns are rewriting the rules. Demand continues to rise Multiple reports indicate that the global market for frozen fries and processed potato products continues to grow robustly. The global market for frozen fries is estimated in these publications at $17 to $25 billion in 2024/25, growing to €24 to $30 billion in 2033. The values vary significantly by source, but the trend is clearly upward in all those reports. Depending on the reports you read, the frozen fries market is expected to grow annually by 3% to 5% over the coming decade. This translates to the same growth that various manufacturers have been counting on in recent years, namely around 4%. The problem for traditional producers is, however, that there are newcomers who are nibbling away at part of the market. The fact that these newcomers are offering much lower prices hurts especially, as companies in the US and Northwest Europe have just become accustomed to higher costs and were able to pass those costs on in their sales. Due to market losses to the newcomers, they can no longer do that and must adapt their strategy. However, the cold storage facilities are so full that traditional processors cannot even benefit from the low price level of free potatoes this year in the European Union. Role of fast food chains Important growth drivers include: global expansion of fast food chains, increasing consumption of convenience foods, especially due to urbanization and changing lifestyles, and new technologies in processing and cooling that improve shelf life and quality. Additionally, this demand growth is supported by a global shift towards convenience, air fryers, online grocery shopping, and bulk retail sales. The increasing variety of products has resulted in distinctive products having different growth potentials. A whole series of reports shows that the growth of the total market for frozen potato products is greater than that specifically for frozen fries. Estimates of the total market for frozen potato products hover around €66 billion with a growth of approximately 5.5%. A world of surplus and scarcity Although demand is increasing, certain regions are simultaneously struggling with structural overproduction. The unprecedented strong growth in potato cultivation in Europe is particularly noticeable. By 2025 alone, the area of French fries potatoes in the four main potato countries in Northwest Europe has increased by nearly 60,000 hectares, with France and Germany experiencing the largest increases of about 43,000 hectares, and a gain of about 14,000 hectares of table potatoes in the Netherlands and Belgium. Combined with good yields, this results in a record harvest this year with large stocks and extremely low prices as a consequence. At the same time, North American producers are actually tempering their acreage and maintaining strict contract discipline with growers to prevent surpluses. As a result, the North American market remains more stable but less volume-driven. In 2026, the acreage in the US is expected to decrease further under pressure from the low prices in the free market this season and a supply that exceeds demand. In Asia, production is growing explosively. China is starting to become a dominant exporter of frozen fries. India is breaking record after record with strong export volumes and extremely low prices. Egypt is also strengthening its position thanks to an early harvest, low logistics costs, and rapidly growing processing capacity. Global price war One of the strongest trends emerging from the reports is the international price war in frozen fries. India and China are quickly gaining market share in countries like Japan and Thailand by offering prices up to 30% lower than European and American suppliers. As a result, average import prices in Asia are dropping by 10% to 20%. Japan is a clear example: Chinese imports rose by 65% in a year, while Belgian and Dutch volumes fell sharply. This downward price spiral puts traditional producers under heavy pressure, especially in Europe where energy and labor costs are high and prices can hardly drop. For some markets, American suppliers remain relatively stable due to quality-driven contracts with large fast food chains, making them less price-dependent. Growth in new markets Globally, processing capacity for potato products is increasing significantly due to large investments in Brazil, India, Egypt, China, and the Middle East. Traditional French fries producers like Lamb Weston, McCain, Farm Frites, Agristo, Aviko, and Simplot are also trying to get a piece of the pie by expanding into regions where labor is cheaper, land is available, and logistics for frozen products are being improved. This creates a broader production landscape in which Europe and North America are losing their historical dominance. Rise of new consumer markets In addition to production, consumption is also geographically shifting. India has enormous domestic demand due to a young population, urbanization, and snack culture. China is seeing rising consumption due to fast food chains, convenience retail, and social media trends. In Africa, especially in Egypt and South Africa, demand is growing rapidly despite infrastructure challenges. In the US and EU, consumption remains stably high, but saturation is hindering further volume growth. The rise of air fryers worldwide has also led to a new boost in household purchases of frozen fries. Trade policy and logistical shocks The reports also emphasize that WTO rulings (such as the case regarding anti-dumping duties in Colombia) are once again opening markets for EU fries. On the other hand, logistical costs, energy prices, and climate risks have a significant impact on competitiveness. New trade streams are emerging whereby, for example, Egypt and India serve markets that were traditionally dominated by Belgium or the Netherlands. European and North American producers are responding by: premium production (quality focus, special coatings, premium cuts), efficiency investments, contract farming, risk management, and more sustainable packaging and energy savings. Nevertheless, various reports paint a picture that these strategies are insufficient to fully offset the large-scale price pressure.