US dairy exports strengthen in October 2025

October 2025 delivered solid overall export results compared with the same month in 2024, despite notable declines in several product categories. Whey protein concentrate (WPC <80) recorded a sharp decrease of 19.21%, while WPC80/WPI exports fell by 17.95%. Lactose and infant formula declined by 9.77% and 35.96%, respectively, and liquid milk exports were down 17.56%.In contrast, most other dairy commodities posted growth. Fat-based products showed exceptional performance. Whole milk powder exports increased by 120.6%, cheese by 35.44%, butter by 168.4%, and anhydrous milk fat by 75.2%. Overall, October dairy exports rose by 7.12% year over year, translating into an incremental volume of approximately 100.5 million kilo in liquid milk equivalent (LME). USA EXPORTS IN TONS Oct 2025 Product Oct '24 Oct '25 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 61.385 61.643 258 0,42% WMP 1.449 3.197 1.748 120,63% Whey 14.877 17.779 2.902 19,51% Dairy blends/ mpc's 3.421 4.823 1.402 40,98% Mod. Whey 13.702 14.190 488 3,56% WPC < 80% 11.861 9.583 -2.278 -19,21% WPC80/WPI's 8.052 6.607 -1.445 -17,95% Casein 99 99 0 0,00% Caseinates 139 226 87 62,59% Lactose 38.624 34.849 -3.775 -9,77% I/F 3.145 2.014 -1.131 -35,96% Cheese 40.923 55.426 14.503 35,44% Butter 2.759 7.405 4.646 168,39% AMF 1.785 3.128 1.343 75,24% Cream 3.225 4.136 911 28,25% Fermented 6.360 6.508 148 2,33% Condensed 1.227 1.593 366 29,83% Milk 10.708 8.828 -1.880 -17,56% On a year-to-date basis through October 2025, US dairy export volumes are running 2.06% above the same period in 2024, representing an additional 295 million kilo in LME terms. This growth has been partially constrained by declines in several key categories, most notably skim milk powder, WPC <80, lactose, infant formula, and liquid milk. Nevertheless, stronger performance in other dairy product categories has more than offset these losses, allowing total year-to-date exports to expand. USA EXPORTS IN TONS YTD Oct 2025 Product YTD Oct '24 YTD Oct '25 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 639.472 561.156 -78.316 -12,25% WMP 21.154 30.852 9.698 45,84% Whey 155.431 167.489 12.058 7,76% Dairy blends/ mpc's 38.101 43.354 5.253 13,79% Mod. Whey 148.728 152.475 3.747 2,52% WPC < 80% 129.948 103.308 -26.640 -20,50% WPC80/WPI's 73.943 79.173 5.230 7,07% Casein 570 946 376 65,96% Caseinates 1.940 3.389 1.449 74,69% Lactose 363.042 360.044 -2.998 -0,83% I/F 21.094 20.998 -96 -0,46% Cheese 429.762 511.601 81.839 19,04% Butter 25.846 61.905 36.059 139,51% AMF 11.243 29.462 18.219 162,05% Cream 31.083 36.950 5.867 18,88% Fermented 50.725 63.620 12.895 25,42% Condensed 14.858 22.195 7.337 49,38% Milk 94.518 90.491 -4.027 -4,26% US dairy imports in October continued to show a negative year-over-year trend and displayed an exceptionally wide gap compared with last year. October closed with a 26.77% year-over-year decline, equivalent to approximately 88 million kilo LME. The steepest reductions were observed across most product groups, with particularly strong declines in fat-based products, except for cream, which recorded an increase. With overall import volumes falling sharply compared with last year, the data indicates that import momentum is slowing, as several key categories continue to contract. Growth was limited to skim milk powder, cream, yoghurt, and fermented products. USA IMPORTS IN TONS Oct 2025 Product Oct '24 Oct '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 25 264 239 956,00% WMP 1.547 1.210 -337 -21,78% Whey 1.650 1.290 -360 -21,82% WPC <80% 1.846 1.820 -26 -1,41% WPC80/WPI's 1.292 966 -326 -25,23% MPC 4.136 3.039 -1.097 -26,52% Casein 1.307 1.127 -180 -13,77% Caseinates 1.811 1.127 -684 -37,77% Lactose 219 216 -3 -1,37% I/F 6.035 3.393 -2.642 -43,78% Cheese 19.132 16.201 -2.931 -15,32% Butter 9.048 2.022 -7.026 -77,65% AMF 1.154 692 -462 -40,03% Cream 4.141 5.819 1.678 40,52% Condensed 4.600 3.565 -1.035 -22,50% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 4.375 5.204 829 18,95% Milk 1.923 1.658 -265 -13,78% Driven by excessive milk production growth, year-to-date imports through November have declined by 5.11%, or around 164 million kilo LME, worsening from a 2.04% decline recorded in August. As of November, year-to-date, milk production in the US increased by 2.31%, equivalent to approximately 2.17 billion kilo. This figure has not been adjusted to account for the additional day in the leap year. When corrected for the leap year effect, milk production growth amounts to approximately 2.45 billion kilo LME, or 2.62%. USA IMPORTS IN TONS YTD Oct 2025 Product YTD Oct '24 YTD Oct '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 425 2.225 1.800 423,53% WMP 13.679 18.524 4.845 35,42% Whey 19.997 18.053 -1.944 -9,72% WPC <80% 17.394 20.826 3.432 19,73% WPC80/WPI's 12.959 14.655 1.696 13,09% MPC 46.247 47.421 1.174 2,54% Casein 27.964 23.942 -4.022 -14,38% Caseinates 18.270 17.492 -778 -4,26% Lactose 2.703 2.577 -126 -4,66% I/F 52.787 49.036 -3.751 -7,11% Cheese 173.704 162.766 -10.938 -6,30% Butter 65.901 42.115 -23.786 -36,09% AMF 18.846 15.023 -3.823 -20,29% Cream 46.008 46.198 190 0,41% Condensed 35.309 36.945 1.636 4,63% Yoghurt/Sour cream/Fermented 36.554 47.183 10.629 29,08% Milk 19.852 20.015 163 0,82% Current dairy stocks, as reported by the USDA, stand at 4.8 billion kilo LME, representing a month-on-month decrease of 1.99%. Milk Production 2024 2025 ∆ ∆% January 8.656.000.000 8.697.000.000 41.000.000 0,47% February 8.249.000.000 8.040.000.000 -209.000.000 -2,53% March 8.925.000.000 9.015.000.000 90.000.000 1,01% April 8.656.000.000 8.796.000.000 140.000.000 1,62% May 8.901.000.000 9.105.000.000 204.000.000 2,29% June 8.449.000.000 8.725.000.000 276.000.000 3,27% July 8.581.000.000 8.930.000.000 349.000.000 4,07% August 8.576.000.000 8.865.000.000 289.000.000 3,37% September 8.283.000.000 8.598.000.000 315.000.000 3,80% October 8.516.000.000 8.823.000.000 307.000.000 3,60% November 8.159.000.000 8.523.000.000 364.000.000 4,46% YTD 93.951.000.000 96.117.000.000 2.166.000.000 2,31% Despite widespread commentary in the US regarding high grocery prices, the data suggests that domestic consumption has increased by 2.06% year to date through October for the products captured in this report. Current theoretical stocks represent 1.88% of year-to-date November milk production. Against the backdrop of continued growth in milk production, imports will likely remain under pressure in the coming months. For the market to remain balanced, sustained growth in exports will be increasingly important.