Naturally Ripened Gouda pricing corrects, but remains more resilient

Naturally Ripened Gouda (NRG) prices corrected over the past year, yet the market told a more nuanced story. While higher milk output and weaker international demand weighed on Gouda prices overall, NRG proved notably more resilient than foiled Gouda, with lower volatility and a widening price gap between the two products. Structural constraints linked to maturation, inventory dynamics, and differentiated demand appear to have cushioned NRG against sharper shocks.According to DCA Market Intelligence benchmarks, Naturally Ripened Gouda (NRG) reached €4,085 per ton on December 25. This represented a decline of 0.49% compared to the previous month and 14% compared to the previous year.Benchmarks fluctuated notably during the year, with prices peaking at €5,385 per ton in week 16. Prices remained relatively range-bound until week 36, before a sharp correction occurred in week 37, when benchmarks fell by €565 week on week. A slower decline followed until week 43, after which prices stabilized. Despite these movements, overall volatility remained moderate, with a coefficient of variation (CV) of 8.9%.NRG showed greater resilience than other DCA Gouda-based benchmarks. Stronger declines and higher volatility were observed in foiled Gouda (-30.5%, CV: 14.8%). While all benchmarks are highly correlated (96–97%), indicating a broadly similar response to market stimuli, NRG experienced a smaller pricing shock. In the second half of the year, foiled Gouda prices declined more sharply, while NRG remained comparatively stable. As a result, the price gap between both products reached €1,150 on December 25, increasing by 7% month on month and 117% year on year.Higher cheese supply weighed on pricingGouda cheese production has its historical roots in the Netherlands as the origin of the cheese variety. Production has expanded to other EU countries, notably Germany and Poland, as well as to countries outside the EU, such as the United States, where Gouda maturation can take place either naturally in wheels or through foil-ripening.A share of Dutch NRG is produced as premium products under a protected geographical indication (PGI) as Gouda Holland, made exclusively from Dutch milk and manufactured in the Netherlands. In addition, Noord-Hollandse Gouda holds a protected designation of origin (PDO) and is produced solely from milk originating in the Province of Noord-Holland. PDO Gouda production is limited to three producers (Cono, FrieslandCampina, and Klaverkaas), with an estimated output of around 55,000 tons per year.Although no specific register of NRG production exists in the Netherlands, Gouda wheel production accounted for an average of 20.1% of total cow cheese production between 2021 and 2023. Based on this share, Gouda wheel production was estimated at 140,361 tons as of September, broadly stable compared with the previous year. Output was lower year on year throughout the first half of the year but increased substantially in the second half, shifting from -3.89% year on year in June to +8.07% in September.This expansion was partly supported by higher milk production, which rose by 0.94% year on year to 11.57 million tons as of November, with most growth occurring in the second half of the year. However, increased milk availability cannot be directly absorbed by NRG production, given limitations in processing and maturation capacity linked to ripening time.GermanyIn Germany, Gouda production is reported within the Schnittkäse category by the BLZ. Production declined consistently until August, before recovering from September onwards. Overall Schnittkäse output fell by 2.5% year on year to 644,773 tons as of October.Milk production reached 27.03 million tons as of October, down 0.37% year on year. Although production improved from August onwards, earlier declines were not fully offset, with further increases expected later in the year.PolandPoland reports only total cow cheese production in Eurostat, which reached 907,110 tons as of October, representing a 4.11% year-on-year increase. In contrast to the Netherlands and Germany, Polish cheese output expanded throughout the year, except for February due to the leap-year effect.Poland also recorded the strongest increase in milk production, rising by 1.38% year on year to 11.51 million tons as of October.Internal tradeAccording to the Comext database, Gouda is primarily traded within the EU. Depending on the perspective used, intra-EU trade either remained broadly stable or increased. Year-to-date intra-EU dispatches declined marginally by 0.25% year on year to 368,647 tons as of September, while arrivals increased by 2.76% to 387,753 tons.Within the bloc, modest declines in supply were reported by Germany (-1.68%) and the Netherlands (-0.41%), while Poland recorded a marked increase of 17.53%. Despite the Polish expansion, absolute declines from Germany and the Netherlands were larger, suggesting that supply may have increased in other, smaller producing member states.Demand conditions were mixed across key importers. Import volumes declined in Belgium (-8.23%), Germany (-1.36%), and Spain (-5.34%), while increases were observed in the Netherlands (+11.42%) and Greece (+1.88%). These increases were insufficient to offset declines elsewhere, indicating that demand was also absorbed by other member states.International trade contractedExports outside the EU totaled 87,082 tons as of September, down 12% year on year. The decline was largely driven by a sharp reduction in shipments to Chile (-58.2%), while milder declines were recorded for Japan (-0.85%), the UK (-3.4%), and the US (-1.1%). The only notable increase was observed in shipments to the Dominican Republic (+11.63%), which did not compensate for lower volumes elsewhere.Consistent with this trend, exports declined across the main EU Gouda suppliers: the Netherlands (-10.3%), Germany (-17.13%), and Poland (-10.5%).International demand mirrored these developments, with total cheese imports declining in Chile by 21.47% year on year to 23,465 tons as of October, suggesting a broader contraction of the cheese category, with Gouda reflecting this trend.In contrast, import volumes increased in the UK (+1.35% as of September) and the US (+9.61% as of July). Lower EU shipments to these markets may indicate substitution, either toward other cheese varieties or toward imports from alternative origins.Discussion and conclusionsEU NRG prices have gone through a clear correction over the past year, broadly in line with the wider cheese segment. Higher milk availability in the second half of the year supported increased cheese output across key producing countries, while international demand weakened, particularly outside the EU. These factors jointly weighed on Gouda prices overall. However, NRG benchmarks displayed greater resilience and lower volatility than foiled Gouda and other semi-hard cheeses.This relative resilience can be explained by differences in production responsiveness and demand segmentation. Naturally ripened cheese requires time for maturation, dedicated ripening facilities, and controlled environmental conditions, implying significant capital and operational commitments. These constraints limit how quickly NRG production can respond to increases in milk supply, reducing the risk of sudden oversupply and softening downward price pressure.Moreover, NRG is an aging product whose value develops over time through maturation. Maintaining inventories of such products can represent a strategic investment rather than merely a cost burden, as producers can manage stock releases in response to market conditions. This has contributed to smoother price dynamics compared with faster-turn formats such as foil-ripened Gouda.On the demand side, NRG’s differentiated positioning—particularly in the Netherlands—tends to be associated with more stable demand, which is less exposed to short-term market shocks.In conclusion, while NRG prices reflected the broader downturn in the cheese market, their relative resilience and lower volatility result from a combination of constrained supply response, aging-related inventory dynamics, and differentiated demand, moderating price movements relative to more commoditized cheese formats.Additional referencesComext databaseStart-up and operating costs for artisan cheese companies. Bouma, Andrea et al. 2014Price Premiums for Single‐Name and Compound‐Name Geographical Indications in Swiss Cheese Trade. Irek, Judith. 2024Inventory management for aging products with supply chain finance: the warehouse financing option. Marchi, Beatrice, et al. 2024 Product differentiation, quality, and milk price stability: The case of the Swiss cheese market. Wang, Yanbing, et al. 2023