Soybeans rising in a geopolitically turbulent world

The European and American futures markets started the first full trading week of 2026 differently. In Europe, it is a bit hesitant, partly due to the large supplies hanging over the market. In the US, grains were in the green. Unrest in Latin America and interest from China provided support for the exchange in Chicago. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €1 lower at €188.25 per ton. On the Chicago exchange, the mood was much more positive. Wheat closed 6 cents higher at $5.12½ per bushel. Corn recorded a gain of 7 cents to $4.44½ per bushel. The biggest gainer in the last trading session was soybeans with a gain of 17¾ cents to $10.47¼ per bushel. After the dip during the Christmas holidays, grain prices climbed in Chicago, which feels a bit like the first real trading day of 2026. According to some analysts, the developments in the American futures market cannot be completely separated from US actions in Venezuela. President Maduro was kidnapped on Saturday and presented in New York yesterday. Trump issued warning words not only against Venezuela but also towards other Latin American countries and Greenland. For investors, this was a signal to enter safe investments. Gold and silver showed significant increases yesterday, but other commodities such as oil and grains also picked up some momentum from the unrest caused by Trump's geopolitical policy, although the effect outside precious metals remains limited. Other experts point out that grains on the Chicago exchange had fallen a bit too much. Prices were at a level that made it interesting for speculators to enter the grain market again. Large supply Fundamentally, not much has changed in the grain market. In the southern hemisphere, Australia and Argentina are finishing their wheat harvest. Farmers in both countries have nothing to complain about regarding the yields, which are on average good. This leaves a large supply of wheat hanging over the market. Interest from China in soybeans from the US gave soybeans on the CBoT extra momentum. According to some sources, China is on track to buy 12 million tons of soybeans from the US before spring. The main competitor for US soybeans is Brazil. There was rain in the main growing areas there last weekend. This is favorable for the soybeans that are now maturing. The Brazilian soybean harvest seems to be very good and it won't be long before it becomes clear whether the estimates align with the actual yields. Some analysts do have concerns about soybeans in Argentina. In southern Argentina, where farmers are almost done planting the soybeans, it is dry. While it rained in the central part of Brazil, it remained dry in southern Argentina.