Surplus weighs heavier than shortages in milk market

The Dutch spot milk price in 2025 was, on average, historically far below the payment prices that dairy farmers received. Even over a longer period, the spot milk prices are below the payment prices. Despite the shrinking milk pool in the Netherlands, surpluses still weigh heavier than shortages, although sentiment is slowly beginning to change. The average Dutch milk price (excluding premiums) for 2025 amounts to €52.27 per 100 kilograms. This allows dairy farmers to look back on a well-performing year, although milk prices have significantly depreciated after the summer. The average DCA spot milk price in the Netherlands for the past year averages €43.77 per 100 kilograms. This shows a historically large gap of €8.50. For almost the entire year, the spot milk price was below the payment price, which is an atypical pattern. Decrease of more than 90%Often, the spot milk prices in the first half of a calendar year are below the payment prices and in the second half above, following the seasonal pattern in milk production. Due to the disrupted calving pattern caused by blue tongue, the production peak in 2025 was later than usual, which heavily impacted the spot market. It pushed the Dutch spot milk price to a new low of €4.50 per 100 kilograms. Overall, the DCA spot milk price fell by no less than 91.3% between week 1 and week 52. Never before has the price drop been so large in recent years. Surplus weighs heavier over the long termEven over the past five years, the average spot milk price was below the average payment price. From 2021 to 2025, the spot milk price averaged €45.31 per 100 kilograms, while the average payment price during that period was €47.28. In this period, there were three years in which the spot milk price was higher than the payment price. That was in 2021, 2022 and 2024, years when the milk market was characterized by tightness and rising prices. This can be seen as a signal that the market is slowly turning, as it has never occurred since the abolition of the milk quota in 2015 that the spot milk price was higher than the average payment price over an entire year. Year Average DCA spot milk price per 100 kilograms Average payment price (excl. premiums) per 100 kilograms 2021 €40.94 €37.13 2022 €54.82 €54.76 2023 €38.02 €44.02 2024 €48.98 €48.21 2025 €43.77 €52.27 2021-2025 €45.31 €47.28