China intervenes in beef market

China has introduced new restrictions on the import of beef from its main export countries, including Brazil, Australia, and the United States, starting from January 1, 2026. Imported volumes exceeding the established quota will be subject to an additional import duty of 55%. The measure does not come as a surprise. For more than two years, large import volumes of beef have made production unprofitable for Chinese cattle farmers. That exports remain profitable despite this has two reasons. First, China imports large quantities of products that are considered offal in the rest of the world. Additionally, due to (among other things, China's dependence on the import of animal feed) slaughter prices in China are so high that exports remain profitable even at the lowest point of the market. Ample quota The import quota is relatively generous and primarily aims to prevent further growth of beef imports. The Chinese Ministry of Commerce has set the total import quota for 2026 at 2,688,000 tons. This level is slightly below the record import of 2.87 million tons in 2024 and below the imports in the first eleven months of 2025. The measure is valid for a period of three years. In the first eleven months of 2025, Chinese imports were already just below this level. The quotas will be slightly increased for the coming years. In 2027, the total quota will amount to 2,742,000 tons, while it will rise to 2,797,000 tons in 2028. The quotas are broken down by country. For Australia, the quota for 2026 is set at 0.21 million tons, significantly lower than the actual export of 0.29 million tons in the first eleven months of 2025. Brazil also receives a quota that is below the current export level: 1.11 million tons for 2026, compared to 1.33 million tons shipped up to November 2025. Remarkably, only Brazil and Australia were already above their quota level in the first eleven months. Brazil exported 1,329,000 tons, which is 20.2% above the new quota. Australia even exported 43.9% more than the established quota. It is likely that China is using this measure to further diversify its beef imports. Damage The Australian government has reacted with disappointment and amazement. Trade Minister Don Farrell stated that Australia has clearly communicated to China that Australian beef poses no threat to the Chinese beef sector. The Australian beef sector is currently investigating the consequences of the new rules. In Brazil, industry organizations are warning of significant financial damage. According to lobbying group Abrafrigo, the country could miss out on up to $3 billion in export revenues in 2026. The total Brazilian beef export is estimated to have generated $18 billion in 2025, of which nearly 48% was destined for the Chinese market.