Shifts in EU grains remain limited in 2026

The total grain cultivation in the European Union remains stable. A slight increase in wheat and barley comes at the expense of grain maize. The latter crop is particularly vulnerable, especially in the drought-sensitive Southern Europe. It will primarily be the conditions that determine whether smaller or larger quantities of the various grain types will come to market. The European grain areas have shown a notably stable picture in recent years. In the EU-27, there is no structural expansion or contraction of the total grain area; the dynamics lie mainly in shifts between wheat, barley, and maize. For the harvest year 2026, the European association of grain traders Coceral again expects only limited changes in the total area, with wheat as the clear anchor crop. Wheat forms the backbone of the cropping plan in the 27 member states of the European Union. The area of soft wheat in the EU increases slightly according to the most recent Coceral estimate, from 21.6 million hectares in 2025 to 21.7 million hectares in 2026. Thus, wheat remains by far the largest crop within the European grains complex. This development underscores that European growers continue to view wheat as a relatively secure market outlet, a fixed part of the rotation, and a crop with manageable risks compared to maize in dry years. Within the EU-27, France, Germany, and Poland are particularly influential on the total movement. Small area changes in these countries directly impact the EU total. For the time being, Coceral expects a slight expansion of soft wheat in France and a minimal decline in Germany. In Poland, the area is heading towards stabilization. The largest increase in 2026 is expected in Romania with an increase of 120,000 hectares to 2.4 million hectares. For durum wheat, Coceral anticipates a slight decrease in area in 2026: from 2.44 million hectares to 2.41 million hectares. This fits the picture of a market that was stimulated by high prices in recent years but is now normalizing again. Southern European countries remain dominant, but expansion seems temporarily limited. The barley area in the EU-27 is expected to increase by 2% in the first forecast; from 10.1 million hectares in 2025 to 10.3 million hectares in 2026. Barley remains an important but flexible rotation crop. The attractiveness strongly depends on feed prices and malt premiums, yield reliability, and competition with wheat in the autumn sowing of winter grains. The largest shift for this crop is expected in Denmark, with an increase from 550,000 to 600,000 hectares. The grain maize area remains under pressure. Coceral estimates for 2026 a decline to below 8 million hectares. Especially in Southern and Eastern Europe, the risk of drought, availability of irrigation, and higher cultivation costs play an increasingly significant role in area decisions. The largest declines are expected by grain traders in France and Romania. In France, they anticipate a reduction of 150,000 hectares to 1.45 million hectares, and in Romania a decrease of 50,000 hectares to 1.75 million hectares. A more normal harvest should prevent production from being as small as last year.