New Zealand’s dairy exports contract in October, while imports increase

The fifth month of the 2025/26 milk season recorded a notable increase in milk production, rising by 1.69%, or 52 million kilo. This followed a stronger increase of 2.50% in September. Year-to-date production through October stands at 1.65%, equivalent to an additional 264 million kilo. October marks the seasonal peak in milk output and is typically followed by four additional months of relatively high production.Export performance in November was mixed across product categories. Most products recorded year-on-year declines, except for acid casein, rennet casein, lactose, butter, and anhydrous milk fat (AMF). Cheese exports remained higher year on year, although momentum appears to be slowing, with growth easing from 5.96% in October to 2.19% in November. Overall, total dairy exports in November declined by 7.96%, corresponding to a reduction of 173,048,990 kilo in liquid milk equivalent (LME). New Zealand exports November 2025 Product Nov. '24 Nov. '25 ∆ ∆% WMP 159.327 138.063 -21.264 -13,35% SMP 42.179 38.090 -4.089 -9,69% BMP 2.804 2.576 -228 -8,13% Whey 1.295 1.245 -50 -3,86% Acid casein 1.915 2.388 473 24,70% Rennet Casein 748 1.338 590 78,88% Caseinates 3.919 3.095 -824 -21,03% WPI/WPC > 80% 2.152 2.089 -63 -2,93% Lactose 2.318 3.255 937 40,42% Infant Formula 8.941 8.034 -907 -10,14% Butter 29.591 31.996 2.405 8,13% AMF 15.280 15.946 666 4,36% Cheese 36.511 37.310 799 2,19% Milk 22.524 16.170 -6.354 -28,21% Condensed 2.679 960 -1.719 -64,17% Cream 21.076 19.233 -1.843 -8,74% Year-to-date results through November broadly reflect the trends observed in the single month of November. Milk powders continue to register declines, while fat-based products show solid growth, largely driven by strong performance earlier in the season. As of November, year-to-date export volumes were down 0.27%, or 49,827,240 kilo in LME. Despite weakness in several powder categories, this indicates a relatively stable overall export performance. New Zealand exports Year To Date November 2025 Product YTD Nov. '24 YTD Nov. '25 ∆ ∆% WMP 1.222.120 1.175.750 -46.370 -3,79% SMP 388.809 359.879 -28.930 -7,44% BMP 36.859 28.779 -8.080 -21,92% Whey 16.563 11.788 -4.775 -28,83% Acid casein 35.081 35.807 726 2,07% Rennet Casein 14.462 18.733 4.271 29,53% Caseinates 29.096 32.594 3.498 12,02% WPI/WPC > 80% 24.025 20.657 -3.368 -14,02% Lactose 24.097 27.937 3.840 15,94% Infant Formula 86.638 90.304 3.666 4,23% Butter 225.177 246.307 21.130 9,38% AMF 151.865 171.382 19.517 12,85% Cheese 336.905 379.151 42.246 12,54% Milk 220.700 210.619 -10.081 -4,57% Condensed 16.508 13.821 -2.687 -16,28% Cream 170.164 194.259 24.095 14,16% On the import side, volumes increased across all products in November, with particularly strong growth in whey and cheese in absolute terms. Total New Zealand dairy imports rose by 2.61% in November, compared with a 6.35% increase in October, representing an additional 48 million kilo in LME. New Zealand imports Year to date November 2025 Products YTD Nov. '24 YTD Nov. '25 ∆ ∆% Whey 0404.10 7.863 9.082 1.219 15,50% Cheese 0406 8.464 10.115 1.651 19,51% Lactose 1702.11 & 19 92.727 93.280 553 0,60% As of year-to-date October, theoretical stocks increased from approximately 1.206 billion kilo LME at the start of the year to 1.54 billion kilo LME, an increase of 27.77%. This stock level represents 9.47% of New Zealand milk production on a year-to-date basis through October 2025. While elevated, this increase is partly explained by higher milk production and rising import volumes.