Wheat price takes a significant hit this week on the futures market

Monday was already a bad day for the wheat price, Tuesday saw an even larger blow. That is at least true for the wheat trade on the futures markets, locally sellers and buyers remain quiet. It's a curious picture where the international wheat market repeatedly takes significant hits, while the local markets hold up fairly well. On the CBoT, the price level has dropped this week to the equivalent of below €160 per metric ton, and in Paris, a price level of €190 per metric ton is also becoming increasingly out of sight. The local trade is holding up reasonably well in the meantime. The grain exchange in Groningen ends the calendar year at a level of €186 per metric ton. This is €8 higher than at the end of September and early October. It is significantly lower than the €230 per ton that was recorded at the end of 2024. So it is not the case that locally there is no impact from this year's globally high wheat supply. But in recent weeks, the regional exchanges have shown that the market in the Netherlands at least remains stable. In all the international turmoil, this is quite interesting to follow. Exchange South made a euro drop at the lower end this week, but in the same breath, a euro more was recorded at the upper end. The net result is therefore a stable average price. The quotation this week stands at €173 to €180 per ton. On the other side of the country - the Grain Exchange in Groningen - the northerners are certainly not any less steadfast. For the third week in a row, the quotation committee reports a price of €186 per metric ton. In an explanation, the committee indicates that sellers show hardly any willingness to part with their product due to the low prices. There are also questions about whether prices will improve in the short term. Then a look at the futures markets. Soft wheat fell Tuesday on the futures market CBoT by 11.25 cents to $5.09½ per bushel. Last week, trading in March contracts closed at a price of $5.29¼ per bushel. Overall, there is a price drop this week of about 20 cents per bushel, or nearly 4%. In a market where normally small movements occur per day, this is a significant decline. For European standards, the price drop on the CBoT means a reduction of the price level of the March contracts to €159 per metric ton. This price drop was accompanied by a strong increase in the number of contracts traded. Out of fear of further price declines, contracts are being sold off. The price drop in wheat is also pulling down the corn price, as wheat and corn compete in the livestock feed market. The price pressure has been caused for some time by a large wheat harvest in the northern hemisphere. Now that large harvests are also being offered from the southern hemisphere, price pressure is increasing further. The European wheat trade is also hindered by an increasingly weakening dollar. Export is already struggling with cheaper supply, especially from the Black Sea region, and the weaker dollar does not make it any easier. Especially France is struggling with difficult exports. This means that the country is trying to sell more wheat on the EU market, resulting in extra price pressure for the internal market. This development is further strengthened by the expansion of winter wheat acreage in France. Statistics agency Agreste predicts an increase in winter wheat cultivation by 100,000 hectares for the 2026 harvest. It is also noted that the crop status at this moment is better than a year ago. This gives French wheat a good starting position for a harvest that is even larger than in 2025. This outlook further depresses the market.