Fewer heifers slaughtered, is the cattle herd in the US growing again?

It has now become a politically charged topic: the development of beef prices in the United States. Sky-high prices for consumers are leading to increasingly critical voices in the country. In January, the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) will provide new figures on livestock numbers, but what can the developments in slaughter figures already teach us? Recently, the high price level of beef in the US became a national theme. President Trump announced a reduction in import tariffs on beef to relieve the market. This was very much against the ranchers' wishes in the country who fear the impact on slaughter cattle prices. They indicate that the cost price level has risen sharply in recent years, to which the president indicated he wanted to do something about this cost price level. The most important factor in the whole situation is the size of the herd. The number of cattle is at its lowest level since at least the 1950s. The consequence: slaughterhouses are closing their doors due to a lack of slaughter cattle. Many stakeholders are therefore watching the developments in slaughter figures with anticipation. Are there early signals that cattle farmers dare to expand the number of animals again? Trends in price cyclePrice cycles that influence the size of the cattle herd are timeless. During a price peak, farmers expand the herd. Supply grows and prices drop. After the low point, prices rise again and at some point, the number of animals is expanded again. However, in recent years, factors such as drought and the enormous price spike have also played a role, and the cycle seems delayed. Instead of quickly committing to herd expansion, the high production costs due to drought and the high prices for slaughter cattle meant that hardly any extra heifers were kept for breeding at beef cattle farms. Ranchers opted for the short term to capitalize on the high prices for slaughter cattle. Increasingly, a number of circumstances hint, albeit slowly, at expansion again. Analysts point out, among other things, the significantly better growth conditions this past season for roughage. The drought monitor from the United States Department of Agriculture also shows that growing conditions in the key livestock farming areas have been much better recently for obtaining good roughage. Slaughter figures not convincing, but first signalA look at the slaughter figures from the USDA does not yet show a very clear signal that farmers are starting to restore the number of animals. According to stakeholders, the share of female slaughterings, heifers, and cows, should be at a maximum of about 47% to actually achieve an expansion of the cattle herd. Although the share of female slaughterings is still somewhat above this, it is at a clearly lower level than last year. In other words: relatively less female cattle are being slaughtered. In the period from June 1 to November 30, the total number of beef slaughterings according to the USDA was 14,390,000 animals. Last year, there were 15,629,000 in the same period. The total number of slaughterings thus decreased by 8.6%. A closer examination of the figures reveals that the number of heifer slaughterings has also recently decreased. Recently, the number of slaughtered dairy cows has risen slightly again, primarily driven by the significant drop in milk prices in the US. It is likely that especially older and less productive dairy cows are being slaughtered earlier. This does not necessarily have to negatively affect the new stock next year. If we look at the ratio of the number of slaughtered heifers as compared to the total number of slaughterings, we can see that this has decreased: relatively fewer young cows are being slaughtered. Also, in absolute numbers, the number of slaughtered heifers and other cows has fallen significantly, by more than 10%. This is a modest signal that possibly more cattle are being committed for new breeding. A sign that there is investment in expanding the herd. Number of slaughterings from June 1 to November 30 2024 2025 Change Total 15,629,000 14,390,000 -8.6% Heifers 4,928,000 4,436,000 -10.0% Dairy cows 1,299,000 1,305,000 +0.5% Other cows 1,329,000 1,133,000 -14.7% Bulls 7,749,000 7,271,000 -6.1% Ratio of heifers to total 31.5% 30.8% -0.7% Although there are some signals indicating slight growth, the figures are not yet convincing enough to expect rapid growth in the number of cattle. Farmers and processors are also eagerly awaiting the USDA's figures on the size of the herd in January. There, a possible recovery of the cattle herd will have to be confirmed for the first time.