Pork export US past its peak

The American pork export fell in September compared to a year earlier. In particular, exports to the Asian market are under pressure. The decline is partially offset by exports to nearby markets. The American pork export amounted to 233,816 tonnes in September, a decrease of 2% compared to a year earlier. The export value remained virtually stable at $683.9 million, partly thanks to a record value for Mexico of nearly $260 million. The value of the export of pork in muscle cuts further rose to $586.2 million, an increase of 1%, while the export of pork by-products was under pressure. This decline is partly related to the retaliatory tariffs imposed by China. Without China, the combined exports of pork and by-products in September were 4% above the level of last year. For the first three quarters of the year, pork exports are 3% below the record pace of 2024, both in volume (2.16 million tonnes) and in value ($6.16 billion). Exports to the key market Mexico and to Central America are on track to reach new annual records. Exports to Colombia, the Caribbean, Hong Kong, and Vietnam also increased year-on-year between January and September. Success close to homeClose to home, exports remain exceptionally strong. The American pork export to Mexico amounted to 106,472 tonnes in September, an increase of 16% compared to a year earlier. The export value rose to $259.6 million, an increase of 26% to the highest level ever recorded. Despite increased competition from Brazilian pork, exports to Mexico over the first three quarters of the year were 4% above last year's record pace in volume (888,077 tonnes) and 8% higher in value ($2.04 billion). The export to Central America also continued to perform strongly. In September, exports increased by 5% to 13,514 tonnes, while the export value increased by 6% to $44.5 million, driven by growth in countries such as Honduras and Guatemala. Over the period from January to September, exports to the region were 20% above last year's record level in volume (131,771 tonnes) and 23% higher in value ($422 million). AsiaAlthough most American pork slaughterhouses regained access to the Chinese market after the halt earlier this year, retaliatory tariffs are pressuring export prospects for 2025. Up to September, American exports to China decreased by 18% to 278,065 tonnes, while the export value fell by 19% to $650.6 million. Weak demand is exacerbated by record-high domestic production in China and waning consumer confidence. On the other hand, there is a more favorable picture in the South Korean market. For the third consecutive month, American pork exports to the country in September were above the level of a year earlier, with a volume increase of 12% to 11,311 tonnes and an increase of 7% to $38.1 million. Over the period from January to September, the volume was still 7% behind last year at 158,482 tonnes, while the export value was 12% lower at $511.7 million. In Japan, exports were under pressure due to the weak yen and other headwinds: exports decreased in the first three quarters by 9% to 235,083 tonnes, while the value fell by 12% to $937.4 million. However, the recent suspension of Japanese imports of Spanish pork due to African swine fever may offer new opportunities for the American sector in the long term. Export value per animal decreasesThe export value of American pork stood at $62.29 per slaughtered animal in September, a decrease of 4% compared to a year earlier. For the period from January to September, the average was $65.17 per animal, which is 1.5% below last year's record pace. Thus, the contribution of exports to the total revenue per slaughtered animal remained slightly under pressure, despite stable export values in absolute terms. Exports accounted for 27.8% of total American pork production and 24% of the production of muscle cuts in September. This is lower than in September 2024, when these shares were 29.6% and 25.4%, respectively. Over the first three quarters of the year, the export share was 29.7% of total production and 25.9% of muscle cuts, both slightly lower than a year earlier.