US dairy trade: Imports and exports contract

US dairy exports in September 2025 delivered weak overall results compared with the same month in 2024, despite several category-specific improvements. Performance across product groups was mixed, with sharp declines in several key commodities offset by strong gains in fat-based products.Skim milk powder (SMP) recorded a steep year-over-year decline of -18.56%, following a similar contraction in August. Liquid milk exports fell by -22.27%, while modified whey declined by -26.33%. Exports of whey protein concentrate below 80% protein dropped by -25.16%. Casein and caseinates posted particularly severe declines of -59.0% and -35.32%, respectively, while lactose exports decreased by -5.50%.In contrast, several commodities experienced solid growth, led by fat-based products. Cheese exports increased by +34.59%, butter surged by +169.21%, and anhydrous milk fat (AMF) rose by +8.00%, collectively delivering an exceptional performance in this segment.Overall, total US dairy exports in September declined by -1.92% year over year, translating into a volume loss of approximately 28 million kilo in liquid milk equivalent (LME). USA EXPORTS IN TONS - September Product Sept '24 Sept '25 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 62.001 50.491 -11.510 -18,56% WMP 2.230 2.885 655 29,37% Whey 17.334 18.781 1.447 8,35% Dairy blends/ mpc's 3.465 4.434 969 27,97% Mod. Whey 18.871 13.903 -4.968 -26,33% WPC < 80% 10.462 7.830 -2.632 -25,16% WPC80/WPI's 7.387 8.114 727 9,84% Casein 678 278 -400 -59,00% Caseinates 201 130 -71 -35,32% Lactose 39.653 37.474 -2.179 -5,50% I/F 2.027 2.168 141 6,96% Cheese 39.592 53.285 13.693 34,59% Butter 2.543 6.846 4.303 169,21% AMF 1.850 1.998 148 8,00% Cream 2.796 4.203 1.407 50,32% Fermented 4.991 8.253 3.262 65,36% Condensed 1.065 1.687 622 58,40% Milk 9.811 7.626 -2.185 -22,27% On a year-to-date basis through September 2025, export volumes were tracking +1.48% higher than during the same period in 2024, representing an additional 192 million kilo in LME. This growth has been moderated by continued declines in several major categories, most notably SMP, whey protein concentrate below 80%, and liquid milk. While these reductions constrained overall momentum, gains in other dairy product categories largely offset the shortfall, allowing total exports to remain in positive territory year to date. USA EXPORTS IN TONS - September YTD Product YTD Sept '24 YTD Sept '25 25 vs '24 ∆% SMP 578.087 499.512 -78.575 -13,59% WMP 19.705 27.654 7.949 40,34% Whey 140.554 149.710 9.156 6,51% Dairy blends/ mpc's 34.680 38.531 3.851 11,10% Mod. Whey 135.026 138.285 3.259 2,41% WPC < 80% 118.086 93.725 -24.361 -20,63% WPC80/WPI's 65.890 72.566 6.676 10,13% Casein 4.328 4.512 184 4,25% Caseinates 1.633 2.772 1.139 69,75% Lactose 324.417 325.195 778 0,24% I/F 17.849 18.984 1.135 6,36% Cheese 388.839 456.175 67.336 17,32% Butter 23.087 54.500 31.413 136,06% AMF 9.458 26.334 16.876 178,43% Cream 27.858 32.815 4.957 17,79% Fermented 44.365 57.113 12.748 28,73% Condensed 13.631 20.603 6.972 51,15% Milk 83.811 81.663 -2.148 -2,56% US dairy imports in September continued to post negative year-over-year results, although the pace of decline eased slightly compared with August. In August, imports were down -14.82% compared with the same month last year, equivalent to a decrease of roughly 50 million kilo LME. September closed with a -9.94% year-over-year decline, corresponding to about 31 million kilo LME. The steepest reductions were observed in fat-based products, except for AMF, as well as in lactose, infant formula, and most liquid products. With overall volumes falling materially below last year’s levels, the data suggests that import growth momentum is slowing, as several key categories show sustained contraction. USA IMPORTS IN TONS - September Product Sept '24 Sept '25 ∆ ∆% SMP 13 197 184 1415,38% WMP 1.157 1.001 -156 -13,48% Whey 1.866 1.894 28 1,50% WPC