EU Emmentaler benchmarks drop amid supply expansion

Emmentaler markets have shifted considerably this year, with prices correcting after months of tight supply and unexpectedly strong milk availability across key EU regions. At the same time, trade flows within the EU and abroad reveal weakening demand in several core destinations and growing competitive pressures in the UK and the US. As benchmarks stabilize heading into the holiday period, questions remain about how the new milking season and changing import patterns will influence pricing in early 2026.DCA Market Intelligence benchmarks for slicing quality Emmentaler closed at €3,790 per ton on December 11, the lowest value of the year. In 2025, prices remained relatively high until March, when they started to fluctuate and decline slightly. The decline accelerated in late summer, with benchmarks falling by €1,190 per ton between August 28 and October 30. The decline has stabilized slightly since then, although the negative trend remains, with the latest assessments showing a 4.41% month-on-month decline. On a year-over-year basis, however, Emmentaler still shows a 28.1% decrease, primarily due to the elevated price levels observed in 2024.The significant shift in pricing led to high volatility, as evidenced by a coefficient of variation of 10.9% in 2025. Emmentaler pricing was relatively resilient compared to other cheeses, observing correlation coefficients ranging between 0.89 for Mozzarella and 0.99 for Maasdam. Except for Maasdam and Mozzarella, most other cheese benchmarks registered steeper declines and higher volatility. This underscores that the Emmentaler is considered a specialty when compared to Gouda, which is more of a commodity market.Yer again, the Emmentaler market is not homogeneous. It also includes protected-origin cheeses (PDO/PGI), produced under stricter specifications and targeting higher-value segments, beyond industrial Emmentaler, which is produced at scale for retail, foodservice, and processing.From tight supply to expansionThe availability of Emmental depends on several factors, relying on the milk production in relevant geographies, stated production capacity, and demand.Cow cheese production in the EU reached 7.49 million tons as of September, reflecting a 1% increase compared to the previous year. The largest monthly increase was observed in September (+3.91% over the previous year), in line with growth in the EU milk supply.France is the largest producer of Emmentaler in the EU, with FranceAgriMer reporting figures for this specific cheese category. Cumulative Emmentaler production totaled 186,330 tons as of September, increasing by 1.5% from the previous year. Notably, production was higher between February and May, with output mostly declining afterwards.Germany reports the production of Emmentaler cheese with other hard cheeses. Hard cheese production in Germany increased by 1% year-over-year to 136,252 tons between January and September. Most of this increase occurred between August and September, with much moderate production in the previous months.The Netherlands does not report precise production values for Emmentaler but for the whole cow cheese category. Dutch cheese production increased by 5.8% compared to the previous year to 698,700 tons as of September. Mirroring the regional developments, production notably accelerated in September, rising by 8.1% from the previous year.The increase in cheese and Emmentaler production has been significantly supported by the milk production in the region. As of October, raw milk production in the EU increased by 0.7% compared to the previous year to 122.98 million tons.While Germany posted a slight decline (-0.34%), output expansion was reported by France (+1%) and the Netherlands (+0.89%). Milk deliveries strengthened notably from August onward, continuing through September and October. This late-year recovery offset the contraction observed earlier in the year and provided the basis for increased cheese supply.Intra-EU trade contractsEmmentaler production is primarily traded within the EU borders, registered through the Harmonized System (HS) code 04069013*. As of August, the intra-EU trade totaled 110,056 tons, contracting by 6.9% compared to the previous year. This contraction was observed across some of the trade flows to the most important EU destinations: France (-16.8%), Italy (-7.5%), Spain (-15.5%), and Germany (-0.7%). Only in Belgium imports increase by 6.1% compared to the previous year.Meanwhile, the provision of Emmental to the regional market declined in Germany (-8.5%), France (-11.5%), and Ireland (-87.4%). While the Netherlands reported higher volumes of internal exports (+6.5%).International trade weakensTrade outside of the EU is significantly smaller than its internal trade, according to the Comext database. As of August, the bloc's exports totaled 14,601 tons, falling by 12.9% compared to the previous year. The contraction was also observed across the two main destinations for EU Emmentaler: the UK (-21.6%) and the US (-22.8%). Exports declined across the main EU Emmentaler exporters, France (-7.5%), Germany (-5.7%), and the Netherlands (-14.4%).Meanwhile, imports increased by 4.1% over the previous year to 3,826 tons as of August, primarily due to higher volumes from Switzerland (+3.9%).The Emmentaler demand from the UK and the US was tracked through the HS code 040690**, which encompasses several other cheese categories.UK cheese imports increased by 1.67% compared to the previous year, reaching 132,252 tons as of August. Growth in sourcing was observed in Ireland (+3.89%) and Cyprus (+10.02%), the most important exporters, while France reported lower shipments (-3.7%).The US demand was marked by a stark contrast, declining by 17.85% compared to the previous year to 92,134 tons. The EU, the US’s major cheese provider, reflected this decline in shipments, especially from Italy (-28.15%), France (-2.03%), Spain (-26.66%), and the Netherlands (-8.48%).Discussion and conclusionsThe EU Emmentaler market shifted from relatively tight conditions early in the year to significantly improved availability in the second half. Higher milk deliveries from August onward supported larger cheese output across major producing countries, easing supply constraints. Simultaneously, a contraction in intra-EU trade indicated a softer demand, especially toward France, Italy, and Spain. These combined developments exerted downward pressure on benchmarks beginning in September. The decline slowed down and stabilized in the last five weeks.International trade remains limited compared to internal EU flows. However, the UK and US, both key external destinations, reduced their imports of EU Emmentaler throughout the year. The UK substituted part of its demand with other cheese categories, while the US registered a broad-based contraction across all imported cheeses, consistent with stronger domestic production. In both cases, higher milk availability in both regions likely contributed to reduced reliance on imports, particularly in commodities. Additionally, trade with the US was affected by the imposition of import tariffs earlier in the year.Emmentaler benchmarks have stabilized after several months of accelerated decline, with the seasonal demand ahead of the Christmas period offering additional support to prices. However, the outlook remains sensitive to developments in milk supply and allocation decisions by dairy processors as the new milking season approaches.Notably, Emmentaler production does not depend only on milk availability, installed capacity, and demand, but also on the strategic allocation of producers. In line with these developments, recent observations from industry players indicate that producers have prioritized Emmentaler production in the last weeks compared to other cheeses, potentially explaining the weekly decline of Emmentaler benchmarks and contrasting Gouda’s upward movement.Footnotes*: HS 04069013: Emmentaler (excl. grated or powdered and that for processing) **: HS 040690: Dairy produce; cheese (not grated, powdered or processed), n.e.c. in heading no. 0406