Mixed signals in global dairy futures

CME, EEX, and SGX dairy futures presented a mixed picture during the sixteenth trading week of 2025. Part of the observed movement reflects technical corrections following the declines recorded in recent weeks.On the CME, most contracts moved higher overall. Exceptions were SMP C1, butter, and whey contracts, excluding C1–C4 and C6, which declined. Milk Class III futures moved lower in C1, while Milk Class IV futures declined in C3, C5, and C6. In the CME spot market, prices weakened for cheese blocks and SMP, while other products showed more resilience.The SGX dairy futures market was mostly higher, although several contracts recorded losses. WMP declined in C2–C3 and C5–C6, while AMF moved lower in C2, C4, and C5. Butter prices fell in C2 and C3. Milk futures also moved down, except for the 2028 contract.At the EEX, futures prices were largely under pressure. SMP was the main exception, rising in C1 and C3 and remaining unchanged in C4 and C5. Butter futures increased across all contracts except C3. Whey moved higher in all contracts except C1, C5, and C6. Liquid milk prices declined in all contracts apart from C1.A closer review of the CME markets confirms that price direction was predominantly positive, aside from the aforementioned contracts. CONTRACT CME Product Month 08/Dec 12/Dec ∆ ∆ % SMP December $2.565 $2.558 ↓ -0,28% January $2.513 $2.532 ↑ 0,75% February $2.477 $2.511 ↑ 1,36% March $2.447 $2.467 ↑ 0,81% April $2.449 $2.475 ↑ 1,04% May $2.480 $2.491 ↑ 0,44% Average $2.489 $2.506 ↑ 0,68% Butter December $3.439 $3.439 ↔ 0,00% January $3.450 $3.439 ↓ -0,32% February $3.506 $3.472 ↓ -0,96% March $3.782 $3.748 ↓ -0,90% April $3.919 $3.897 ↓ -0,56% May $4.012 $4.003 ↓ -0,23% Average $3.685 $3.666 ↓ -0,50% Whey December $1.554 $1.532 ↓ -1,45% January $1.565 $1.543 ↓ -1,41% February $1.522 $1.516 ↓ -0,40% March $1.467 $1.462 ↓ -0,34% April $1.426 $1.429 ↑ 0,15% May $1.389 $1.378 ↓ -0,79% Average $1.487 $1.476 ↓ -0,72% Block December $3.360 $3.364 ↑ 0,13% Cheese January $3.205 $3.369 ↑ 5,09% February $3.256 $3.362 ↑ 3,25% March $3.373 $3.468 ↑ 2,81% April $3.483 $3.580 ↑ 2,78% May $3.582 $3.655 ↑ 2,03% Average $3.377 $3.466 ↑ 2,66% Milk December $35,14 $35,03 ↓ -0,31% Class III January $33,55 $35,10 ↑ 4,60% February $33,82 $34,83 ↑ 3,00% March $34,66 $35,54 ↑ 2,54% April $35,58 $36,44 ↑ 2,42% May $36,33 $37,04 ↑ 1,94% Average $34,85 $35,66 ↑ 2,34% Milk December $30,36 $30,36 ↔ 0,00% Class IV January $30,20 $30,20 ↔ 0,00% February $29,87 $29,81 ↓ -0,22% March $30,95 $31,00 ↑ 0,14% April $31,77 $31,75 ↓ -0,07% May $32,43 $32,41 ↓ -0,07% Average $30,93 $30,92 ↓ -0,04% The CME spot market showed positive development for most products, except block cheese, which declined, barrels, which remained unchanged, and SMP, which also moved lower. CME Spot market Product 08/Dec 12/Dec ∆ ∆ % Dry Whey $1.642 $1.687 ↑ 2,68% Cheese Blocks $2.987 $2.976 ↓ -0,37% Cheese Barrels $3.114 $3.114 ↔ 0,00% Butter $3.257 $3.263 ↑ 0,17% SMP $2.590 $2.557 ↓ -1,28% Following the weakness observed at GDT 393, sentiment on the SGX dairy futures market remained relatively hopeful over the past week. Nevertheless, losses persisted in WMP C2–C3 and C5–C6, AMF C2, C4, and C5, and butter C2 and C3. Milk futures again declined across most contracts, with the 2028 position standing out as the sole exception. SGX Product Month 08/Dec 12/Dec ∆ ∆ % WMP December $3.270 $3.295 ↑ 0,76% January $3.225 $3.205 ↓ -0,62% February $3.225 $3.210 ↓ -0,47% March $3.220 $3.225 ↑ 0,16% April $3.285 $3.280 ↓ -0,15% May $3.325 $3.305 ↓ -0,60% Average $3.258 $3.253 ↓ -0,15% SMP December $2.505 $2.520 ↑ 0,60% January $2.500 $2.525 ↑ 1,00% February $2.510 $2.535 ↑ 1,00% March $2.545 $2.555 ↑ 0,39% April $2.560 $2.595 ↑ 1,37% May $2.590 $2.615 ↑ 0,97% Average $2.535 $2.558 ↑ 0,89% AMF December $5.850 $5.850 ↔ 0,00% January $5.550 $5.540 ↓ -0,18% February $5.450 $5.480 ↑ 0,55% March $5.400 $5.380 ↓ -0,37% April $5.395 $5.350 ↓ -0,83% May $5.350 $5.355 ↑ 0,09% Average $5.499 $5.493 ↓ -0,12% Butter December $4.910 $4.990 ↑ 1,63% January $4.900 $4.870 ↓ -0,61% February $4.925 $4.875 ↓ -1,02% March $4.840 $4.900 ↑ 1,24% April $4.950 $4.960 ↑ 0,20% May $4.915 $4.950 ↑ 0,71% Average $4.907 $4.924 ↑ 0,36% Milk Sept '26 $9,23 $9,16 ↓ -0,76% Sept '27 $8,50 $8,48 ↓ -0,24% Sept '28 $8,90 $8,90 ↔ 0,00% European dairy markets showed predominantly negative movement during the week. SMP prices increased in C1 and C3 and were unchanged in C4 and C5. Butter futures moved higher in all contracts except C3, while whey futures increased in all contracts except C1, C5, and C6. Liquid milk prices declined across the board, except for C1. EEX in EUR Product Month 08/Dec 12/Dec ∆ ∆ % SMP December €2.063 €2.075 ↑ 0,58% January €2.063 €2.063 ↔ 0,00% February €2.035 €2.038 ↑ 0,15% March €2.035 €2.035 ↔ 0,00% April €2.063 €2.059 ↓ -0,19% May €2.084 €2.079 ↓ -0,24% Average €2.057 €2.058 ↑ 0,05% Butter December €4.300 €4.325 ↑ 0,58% January €4.119 €4.163 ↑ 1,07% February €4.132 €4.113 ↓ -0,46% March €4.180 €4.188 ↑ 0,19% April €4.240 €4.303 ↑ 1,49% May €4.309 €4.367 ↑ 1,35% Average €4.213 €4.243 ↑ 0,71% Whey December €1.013 $1.000 ↓ -1,28% January €1.020 €1.025 ↑ 0,49% February €1.030 €1.040 ↑ 0,97% March €1.025 €1.040 ↑ 1,46% April €1.025 €1.015 ↓ -0,98% May €1.025 €1.005 ↓ -1,95% Average €1.023 €1.021 ↓ -0,21% Liq Milk December €50,10 €50,12 ↑ 0,04% January €46,65 €45,54 ↓ -2,38% February €44,67 €43,71 ↓ -2,15% March €43,33 €41,41 ↓ -4,43% April €41,03 €39,20 ↓ -4,46% May €39,67 €38,26 ↓ -3,55% Average €44,24 €43,04 ↓ -2,72% EEX in USD EEX in USD euro/Dollar 1,1639 1,1742 >> 0,88% Product Month 08/Dec 12/Dec ∆ ∆ % SMP December $2.372 $2.396 ↑ 1,03% January $2.360 $2.411 ↑ 2,17% February $2.363 $2.377 ↑ 0,59% March $2.378 $2.375 ↓ -0,10% April $2.378 $2.437 ↑ 2,50% May $2.397 $2.460 ↑ 2,62% Average $2.375 $2.410 ↑ 1,47% Butter December $5.265 $5.007 ↓ -4,90% January $4.908 $4.702 ↓ -4,19% February $4.818 $4.682 ↓ -2,82% March $4.833 $4.719 ↓ -2,36% April $4.924 $4.790 ↓ -2,71% May $5.036 $4.860 ↓ -3,50% Average $4.964 $4.793 ↓ -3,44% Whey December $1.176 $1.180 ↑ 0,29% January $1.198 $1.217 ↑ 1,56% February $1.217 $1.220 ↑ 0,29% March $1.219 $1.194 ↓ -2,10% April $1.196 $1.194 ↓ -0,19% May $1.173 $1.180 ↑ 0,59% Average $1.196 $1.197 ↑ 0,07% Liq Milk November $58,62 $58,36 ↓ -0,44% December $56,51 $55,04 ↓ -2,59% January $54,40 $52,79 ↓ -2,96% February $52,13 $50,94 ↓ -2,28% March $48,76 $48,23 ↓ -1,09% April $48,27 $46,68 ↓ -3,30% Average $53,12 $52,01 ↓ -2,09% When comparing 2025 performance with the final trading session of 2024, a clear regional divergence emerges. Overall, most commodities recorded lower price levels, with the main exceptions being whey in the US spot market and milk 2028 on the SGX. The United States and the European Union showed the weakest performance, with prices under pressure across all key dairy products. New Zealand, by contrast, emerged as the strongest performer among the three major trading regions. However, despite this relative outperformance, most products still recorded downside movement, with milk 2028 again standing out as the primary exception. Region Product Change 12/12/'25 VS 27/12/'24 USA CME SMP -17,47% BUTTER -38,93% WHEY -2,80% BLOCK CHEESE -16,29% MILK CLASS III -18,54% MILK CLASS IV -33,02% USA CME SPOT CALL MARKET WHEY 3,02% CHEDDAR BLOCKS -27,46% CHEDDAR BARRELS -19,29% BUTTER -42,39% SMP -16,48% NEW ZEALAND SGX SMP -12,33% SMP -9,79% AMF -19,32% BUTTER -21,89% MILK '26 -7,94% MILK '27 -9,69% MILK '28 1,14% EU EEX SMP -28,86% BUTTER -44,95% WHEY -0,41% LIQ MILK -25,41%