UK milk output records its strongest growth of 2025 in October

UK milk output accelerated sharply in October, reporting the strongest year-on-year growth of 2025 as seasonal calving, resilient prices, and favorable feed conditions continued to support production. While the fundamentals remained positive during the month, price corrections towards the end of the year signal a potential shift in production incentives.Deliveries of raw milk to dairies in the United Kingdom (UK) reached 1.31 billion liters in October, marking the largest annual increase recorded in any month of 2025, up 7% year-over-year. Over the previous month, production expanded by 7.24%, reflecting seasonal increases linked to the UK’s second calving season.Supported by consistently high productivity throughout the year, cumulative milk production for the year rose by 4.9%, reaching 13.15 billion liters. This confirms that the expansion observed since the start of the year has remained broad-based rather than being confined to seasonal effects alone.Beyond higher volumes, the nutritional composition of milk improved in October. Milk fat content increased to 44.4 grams per kilo, up 0.69% from the previous year, while protein content reached 35.9 grams per kilo, representing a more pronounced annual rise of 3.45%. As a result, the production of valuable milk solids increased by 9% compared to the previous year in October, while cumulative milk solids output over the course of the year increased by 6%. This development underscores a higher availability for processors focused on the production of cheese, butter, and other high-solid dairy products.Prices and margins supported production incentivesFavorable farmgate prices have supported the output expansion throughout the year. According to Defra, UK farmgate milk prices averaged 46.47 pence per liter (€53.1 per 100 liters) in October, up 1.1% compared with September and 1.35% relative to January.However, the annual comparison has gradually narrowed. The price gap versus the previous year contracted from 19.5% in January to 2.4% in October, primarily due to the high baseline prices established in 2024 rather than a sharp deterioration in current market conditions.Feed and forage conditions remained supportiveLower feed costs have further strengthened production incentives. In Great Britain, the milk-to-feed price ratio increased by 4.1% month on month and by 8.9% year on year as of September, providing a good margin environment for dairy farmers up to that point.Feed markets have remained low, with cattle and calf feed prices averaging £300 per ton (€342.31) in Q3, down 0.3% from the previous quarter and 2% lower than the previous year. At the same time, forage conditions have been relatively supportive. Although grass availability is declining as winter approaches, the average grass growth rate was 13.7% higher than last year in October, rising to 31.2% above year-ago levels in the first week of November. This indicates a higher relative forage availability entering the winter period, despite the seasonal decline.Price corrections emergeOverall, October presented a favorable environment for production, with strong volumes, improving milk solids, and relatively low costs. That said, price corrections announced for November and December by major processors, such as Müller, Arla, and Parkham Farms, point to a changing perspective. As farmgate prices weaken, these adjustments could affect farmers’ margins and their willingness to maintain increasing production levels in the coming months. The October figures nevertheless confirm that, up to that point, the UK dairy sector remained under a strong expansion.