Weak pork market also visible in Brazil

The global demand for pork is clearly cooling down, and this is reflected in Brazilian pork exports. The export has taken a significant step back. Throughout the year, the volume did increase. The Brazilian pork export amounted to 106,500 tons in November, a decrease of 12.5% compared to the same month last year (121,100 tons). The export revenue dropped even more sharply: by 14.9% to $248.2 million, down from $291.7 million a year earlier. The decline in both volume and revenue reflects a cooling international demand and pressure on export prices, factors that are putting downward pressure on the sector in the short term. However, over the first eleven months of 2025, the export shows a very different picture. Between January and November, the shipped volume increased by 10.4% to 1,372,000 tons, compared to 1,243,000 tons in the same period last year. The corresponding revenue even rose more strongly: by 18.7% to $3.29 billion ($2.77 billion a year earlier). This growth indicates a structural increase in exports. The question is whether the weak result in November is a precursor to a trend reversal. Philippines continues to attract exports The Philippines remained by far the largest buyer of Brazilian pork between January and November, with 350,100 tons (+49.1%). China followed as the second destination with 149,000 tons, a sharp decline of 32.6%, highlighting the shifting demand structure in the Asian market. Other important markets were Chile with 109,100 tons (+5.8%), Japan with 101,200 tons (+18.9%), and Hong Kong with 99,100 tons (+1.8%). This distribution shows a strong diversification of exports. However, the significant export to the Philippines potentially poses a long-term risk, as the substantial increase is directly related to the issues with African swine fever (ASF). The export could decline significantly if the country manages to control the epidemiological situation. On the supply side, Santa Catarina made by far the largest export contribution, with 688,400 tons (+50.73%) in the first eleven months of the year. Rio Grande do Sul followed at a distance with 317,300 tons (+17%), while Paraná exported 214,900 tons (+25.7%). The states of Mato Grosso and Minas Gerais contributed smaller but steadily growing volumes, with 34,500 tons (+0.71%) and 33,700 tons (+29.6%) respectively.