Good start for wheat is no guarantee for top harvest

It is very early in the growing season, but Coceral came out with an estimate for the grain harvest in Europe in 2026. Although the wheat is looking good, Coceral does not expect a repetition of the very good yields we saw last season. In India, grain growers also have little to complain about regarding the start of the new season. This is reflected in a significant increase in the wheat area. The March contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.25 lower at €190 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat lost 5 cents, coming in at $5.31¼ per bushel. Corn closed 6 cents lower at $4.34¾ per bushel. In contrast to the grains, soybeans made a slight upward move. The January contract on the Chicago exchange closed 4 cents higher at $10.91¼ per bushel. The European union of grain traders Coceral has published its first harvest forecast for the 2026 harvest. The organization expects that 143.9 million tonnes of wheat will be harvested in the EU next summer. For comparison: in 2025, 147.5 million tonnes of wheat were threshed. Last season, wheat yields in the EU were exceptional according to Coceral. For the upcoming season, the union expects lower yields per hectare. Still, the starting position for winter wheat is not bad. The rain of the past months has ensured favorable soil moisture, allowing crops in many parts of the EU to develop well in the run-up to winter, writes Coceral. Dryness The yield of barley is estimated at 58.2 million tonnes for the upcoming harvest compared to 63.2 million tonnes in 2025. The expected yield of corn in the first estimate for next year is 58.9 million tonnes compared to 57.1 last harvest. Coceral expects yields to recover somewhat after last growing season was very dry. Growers mainly in France and countries in the Balkans are losing interest in corn after yields have often been disappointing in recent years. Instead of corn, they are planting a bit more sunflowers and soybeans according to Coceral. The rapeseed harvest for 2026 is estimated by Coceral at 21.8 million tonnes. This is equal to the harvest of last summer. Due to good harvests, wheat is the weak link in the grain market, various analysts state. Last Tuesday, the USDA raised the ending stock of wheat in the Wasde report by 3.4 million tonnes to 274.9 million tonnes. An increase was expected, but the adjustment was larger than what various market players had anticipated. The effect of this can be seen on the CBoT. The March wheat contract, which is the most traded, fell yesterday to its lowest level in a month and a half. What particularly does not help exporters in the US is that Argentina has reduced the export duty on wheat. The duty on wheat has been lowered from 9.5% to 7.5%. Wheat from Argentina was already relatively cheap on the world market, and it would have to be a strange turn of events for that to change in the short term. Due to quality issues, feed wheat from Argentina is at its lowest price level in eight years, several sources report. Significant expansion of wheat area in India Farmers in India have sown significantly more winter crops such as winter wheat, rapeseed, and chickpeas this autumn. This is reported by Reuters based on figures from the Indian Ministry of Agriculture. In total, 47.9 million hectares of winter crops have been sown. This is 6.1% more than last year. More than half of that is wheat at 24.1 million hectares. Thus, the wheat area is 10.8% larger than last season. The area planted with rapeseed is 4.5% larger compared to last season with 7.8 million hectares. The reason for the expansion of the area is the rain that fell last October. In major growing regions in northwest India, up to 161% more rain than average fell in October. Due to the ample amount of moisture in the ground, fields that would often remain fallow in other years due to insufficient water availability are now being cultivated. A large area does not automatically mean that a record harvest is coming. The period from about mid-January to mid-March is crucial for the yields.