Pork loin still in demand during the Christmas days

The Dutch price of pork cuts has unexpectedly risen this week. Extra Christmas demand and strong demand from the industry are driving prices up. As a result, the cuts prices are deviating from the pork prices, which are under pressure. The Dutch pork cuts prices have taken a significant leap upward, as shown by the DCA pork cuts monitor. On average, the carcass price has increased by 2.24 cents per kilo. This is a clear break from the trend of the last 13 weeks. During that period, an increase of more than a cent in a week was not observed. Until last week, the average carcass price was as much as 18.65 cents in the negative. When looking at the bigger picture, the increase is initially surprising. The pork price is under significant pressure due to an expected very sluggish meat market. Due to African swine fever (ASF), Spain can no longer sustain about half of its exports to third countries. The expectation is that Spain will soon dump substantial volumes of pork on the European market. This has also caused the DCA market price to drop significantly this week. Demand is increasing For now, however, that is not yet the case. The Spanish market has not really put pressure on the market yet, which partly explains why prices are still rising. This is mainly due to an increase in demand, for which there are two clearly identifiable reasons. The first reason is that there is a clear Christmas revival this year. This aligns roughly with previous years. This year, the price of the loin has risen by €1.15 per kilo since the start of the revival. This corresponds well with 2022 and 2023, when the prices increased by €1.07 and €1.11 respectively. This data does not yet include the upcoming week, during which prices are generally also expected to rise. Only in 2019 and 2020 did the price increase even more strongly. The second reason is that demand from meat processors is expected to continue until January, especially from the processing industry, which will partially operate during the holidays. Christmas falls later in the week this year, causing slaughterhouses to scale down earlier. Although there is still quite a bit of meat in stock, this demand allows slaughterhouses to exert some pressure on their customers. This also explains the rise in atypical Christmas products such as bacon and bellies. It remains to be seen to what extent this increase will stick. The market expectation is that the revival is temporary and will be offset by early January at the latest.