Is China making room in grain silos for purchases?

The relationship between China and the US sparked conversation again yesterday on the CBoT. China is on track to import a record amount of soybeans, but America is struggling to gain a foothold. Meanwhile, there are signals that China may be in the process of emptying silos for new purchases. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €2.75 lower at €189.25 per tonne. Also, on the CBoT, wheat took a step back with a decrease of 1½ cents to $5.36 per bushel. Corn closed ½ cent lower at $4.36¼ per bushel. The biggest loser of the past trading session was soybeans, dropping 11½ cents to $10.93¾ per bushel. The USDA announced yesterday that 132,000 tonnes of American soybeans have been sold to China. However, this news made little impact. More attention was directed towards customs figures from China. Last November, China imported 8.11 million tonnes of soybeans, which is 13.4% more than November last year but 14.5% less than in October. Over the first eleven months of this year, according to customs figures, China has imported 103.8 million tonnes of soybeans, which is 6.9% more than the same period a year earlier. China is therefore on track for a record import this calendar year. Although China imported a significant volume of soybeans in November, some analysts believe the imports are slightly lower than expected. A deal was concluded between China and the US at the end of October, and some analysts expected that this would provide an additional boost to Chinese soybean imports. With approximately 2.7 million tonnes (according to USDA figures), China has also purchased a serious amount of American soybeans. Making room The Chinese state purchasing and storage company Sinograin announced on Monday that it will bring 512,500 tonnes of soybeans to market at an auction this coming Thursday (December 11). This is the first auction in three months and the first sale of soybeans since the agreement with the US. It is expected to involve soybeans harvested in the years 2022 and 2023. According to some sources, this auction could mark the start of more auctions. By focusing on sales now, Sinograin is making room for additional soybean purchases in the US, as some sources expect. In Brazil, farmers are almost finished sowing soybeans. According to AgRural, as of December 4, 94% of the planned soybean area has been sown. Last year, the tally at this time was at 95% sown. The rain that fell last week in parts of Brazil has particularly boosted the crop in the largest soybean province, Mato Grosso, according to AgRural. Nevertheless, the market agency maintains the soybean yield forecast at 178.5 million tonnes. AgRural also presented the first yield forecast for corn in Brazil. The total harvest is estimated at 135.3 million tonnes compared to 141.1 million tonnes last season. The corn that is sown first is nearly complete, according to the market agency. In Rio Grande do Sul, there are concerns about the warm and dry weather. “That is already costing corn growers there yields,” writes AgRural. Larger harvest in Ukraine The Ukrainian wheat harvest is expected to be 4% larger this coming summer than last summer. This is stated by the market agency Argus after their virtual crop tour. The wheat area is increasing by 100,000 hectares to 5.2 million hectares according to Argus, and an average yield of 4.6 tonnes per hectare is anticipated compared to 4.55 tonnes per hectare in 2025. Conditions in different regions of Ukraine vary significantly, from dry to winter wheat that has been sown late due to persistent rain. Overall, winter wheat in Ukraine is currently in better shape than last year, as there is sufficient moisture in the soil in the main production regions, according to Argus. Egypt, one of the largest importers of wheat, plans to expand its wheat acreage next season. The wheat area is expected to reach 3.5 million feddans (approximately 1.5 million hectares) by 2026, as told by Egyptian Minister of Agriculture Alaa Farouk to Bloomberg. In 2025, 3.2 feddans (approximately 1.3 million hectares) of wheat were cultivated in Egypt.