Drought leaves its mark in Canadian potato yields

The Canadian potato production is slightly smaller than previously anticipated by market experts. Yields are generally lower because of a hot and dry growing period during late summer. The increase in production is thus mainly due to the increased growing area.Statistics Canada published their preliminary figures on December 5th. They forecast the potato production at 125,35 million cwt or 5.7 million tonnes. That is 2% lower compared to last year and slightly higher than the five-year average. Market experts had anticipated a yield of 130 million cwt (5.89 million tonnes).Area increasesThe harvested area, according to Stat Can, mounted to 391,718 million acres (158.526 hectares). This is an increase of 8,217 acres (3.325 hectares) compared to 2024. This is also slightly less compared to the previous figures. Alberta saw the biggest increase, due to expansion from the McCain plant in Coaldale. Quebec, Ontario and Prince Edward Island (PEI) also saw increases. The area decreased in Manitoba, Saskatchewan and New Brunswick.The growing season started with cool weather and rain, but this didn’t hamper planting progress. Conditions were ideal across the country, and it looked to be a bumper crop. When it turned dry by mid-July, there was no precipitation for weeks on end. Crops in the Eastern provinces were hit by the dry weather and higher than average temperatures. This also slowed harvest progress and gave storage concerns. Overall, harvest conditions were positive and the reported crop quality in stores is said to be excellent.The average yield shows the effect of these dry growing conditions. A nationwide average of 321.2 cwt per acre (35.97 tonnes per hectares) was achieved. This is a reduction of 1.11 tonnes per hectare (45 cwt per acre).PEI takes biggest hitPEI, which is the biggest potato growing area in Canada, was hit the hardest by the drought and heat. Its total production of 21,798 million cwt (988.740 tonnes) is 16% less compared to the previous year, when 1.176 million tonnes (25,930 million cwt) was harvested. The average yield is almost a fifth lower compared to last year.More to the west, growing conditions were a lot better, which is reflected in the average yield. Growers in Alberta lifted 423.5 cwt per acre (47.44 tonnes per hectare) on average. The total production is 34,045 million cwt or 1.54 million tonnes. An increase of 13% compared to 2024, when 30,089 million cwt or 1.36 million tonnes was produced.No tariffsCanada is strongly reliant on exports to its neighbour the United States. Especially when it comes to French fries. Despite a 2.16% decrease in the US potato production, the demand for potato products will likely be less this season. Tariffs placed on Canadian goods such as potato products have been keeping the market busy since early this year. The sector breathed a sigh of relief when President Trump signed an executive order to modify the scope of the tariffs that were announced on April 2nd. Potato products from Canada are now exempt from tariffs, as long as they are compliant under the Canada-United States-Mexico Agreement (CUSMA).Exports of frozen fries from the US to Canada have been lower all year so far, tariffs or not. That has everything to do with a higher potato production in the US. During the first eight months of the year the fries export is 7.3% lower to the US, with a reduction of 62,310 tonnes compared to the same period last year. Total fries export from Canada is almost 4% lower this year. It’s not all bad news as Mexico and Japan both bought significantly more fries from Canada.The Canadian potato harvest is only slightly less this year compared to 2024. This is mainly due to area increases and not because the yield was higher, as reflected in the yield figures. The Canadian potato sector is pleased with Trumps decision not to place tariffs on potato products from its neighbouring country, but the current market situation is causing a significantly lower demand for fries and other potato products. There are other destinations which are importing more fries, but the world market is full of fries. Canadian exporters are facing the same situation as processors in other countries.