Canadian wheat harvest breaks records | DCA Market Intelligence

As a farmer, you can try your best, but ultimately the weather is a very important factor that determines the yield of a crop. This is once again evident when we look at the new harvest figures in Canada. Sufficient rain at the right moment has pushed the yield of wheat and canola to record heights, according to Stats Canada. Ukraine could export 5% more grain and oilseeds this season, according to the Ukrainian grain association. In the US, expectations for soybean exports are high. According to Bessent, 12 million tonnes of soybeans will go to China in the near future, but there are some doubts about that from the trade. The December contract for wheat on the Matif closed yesterday €0.50 lower at €192.50 per tonne. On the CBoT, wheat showed a modest increase of 3¼, closing at $5.41 per bushel. Corn was the biggest riser in Chicago in the last trading session, closing 6¼ cents higher at $4.37¾ per bushel. Soybeans were also in the green, closing 3¾ cents higher at $11.19½ per bushel. Canadian farmers harvested a record amount of wheat last summer. This is evident from the final harvest figures released by Stats Canada yesterday. The total wheat harvest amounts to 40 million tonnes. This makes the harvest 11.2% larger compared to last year and surpasses the previous record harvest from 2013. The majority of the wheat in Canada is spring wheat, namely 29.3 million tonnes. The area of spring wheat was 2.1% smaller at 18.3 million acres in 2025 than in 2024. The yield per acre was 12.9% higher than a year earlier. Stats Canada calculates an average yield for spring wheat of 58.8 bushels per acre (approximately 4 tonnes per hectare). Canola also performed well in Canada. The total harvest is 13.3% larger than last year at 21.8 million tonnes, breaking the record set in 2017. The average yield of canola is 44.7 bushels per acre (approximately 3 tonnes per hectare). The area of barley shrank by 4.9% compared to last year to 5.6 million acres. However, the total barley harvest was 19.4% larger at 9.7 million tonnes. The yield per acre was a quarter higher than last season at 79.4 bushels per acre (approximately 5.4 tonnes per hectare). Sufficient moistureThe weather has played an important role in the good yields, writes Stats Canada. Sufficient rainfall at the right times in the prairie provinces has brought the yields of wheat, barley, and canola to record levels. Corn and soybeans have not performed as well in Canada this season. Compared to last season, 0.7% more corn has been sown in Canada, namely 3.6 million acres, but the harvest is 3.1% lower at 14.9 million tonnes. The area of soybeans was increased by 1.4% to 5.7 million acres. The total harvest is 10.2% lower than last year at 6.8 million tonnes. In the eastern provinces Ontario and Quebec, the warm and dry weather during the growing season has likely cost yields, writes Stats Canada. Fear of Russian attacksThe Ukrainian grain association states that the export of grain and oilseeds could grow by 5%. According to the association, the total exports this season would reach 49 million tonnes compared to 46.7 million tonnes last season. However, the Ukrainian grain association does have one major caveat regarding the forecast. The amount of grain that can be exported depends largely on the damage caused by Russia's attacks on the Ukrainian energy supply, ports, and railways. Russian agricultural organizations sold 15.8% less grain in the first ten months of the calendar year compared to the same period last year. This was announced this week by the Russian statistics service Rosstat. A total of 54.6 million tonnes of grain has been traded this year in ten months. The Russian export of sunflower, canola, and soybean meal could reach a record amount of 4.4 million tonnes this season, writes the Russian market agency Ikar. Last season, 3.9 million tonnes of meal were exported. Due to a good canola and soybean harvest and strong domestic demand for vegetable oil, Russia has a lot of meal to export. Whether a record will actually be broken depends partly on the demand for soybean meal, according to Ikar. Especially in the Far East, the demand for soybean meal is less significant. China remains elusive for the USThe Far East, and specifically China, remains a difficult market for the United States. US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent insists that China will buy 12 million tonnes of soybeans in the US by February 2026. The count has remained at 2.25 million tonnes since October (when the deal between Trump and Xi was made), according to the official USDA figures. Meanwhile, Brazil exported 4.2 million tonnes of soybeans in November compared to 2.6 million tonnes in November 2024. Not all of that export is directed to China. Brazilian soybeans are cheaper for Chinese buyers than American ones, and the good export figures from Brazil raise questions among various analysts about how firm China's commitments really are.